Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). </li>
<li>The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. </li>
<li>My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.</li>
</ul>


This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). 
The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. 
My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.


<ul>
<li>Last year, fintech-wannabe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marui-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13604:1" rel="noopener">Marui Group (8252 JP)</a> announced a large buyback as part of its ¥100bn distribution to shareholders in its MTMP, then increased the size</li>
<li>They repurchased ¥26bn of shares. Today they announced the return of ¥50bn this year including a ¥40bn buyback. And having arrived at their optimal balance sheet structure, a new policy.</li>
<li>That's 10% of market cap and 11.6% of shares. And again a delayed start. And as always, shareholder structure matters. In this case a lot.</li>
</ul>


Last year, fintech-wannabe Marui Group (8252 JP) announced a large buyback as part of its ¥100bn distribution to shareholders in its MTMP, then increased the size
They repurchased ¥26bn of shares. Today they announced the return of ¥50bn this year including a ¥40bn buyback. And having arrived at their optimal balance sheet structure, a new policy.
That's 10% of market cap and 11.6% of shares. And again a delayed start. And as always, shareholder structure matters. In this case a lot.


BIGLY Marui Group (8252 JP) Buyback, Backed by Big Dividend Boost

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>J Front has acquired a stake in an e-sports management business and will use this to target younger people, drawing them into its buildings through themed events.</li>
<li>Event marketing has become a key weapon for department stores and shopping buildings and should help bring in more young people.</li>
<li>J Front is also using technology to bring in more HNWIs – where the real profits lie.</li>
</ul>


J Front has acquired a stake in an e-sports management business and will use this to target younger people, drawing them into its buildings through themed events.
Event marketing has become a key weapon for department stores and shopping buildings and should help bring in more young people.
J Front is also using technology to bring in more HNWIs – where the real profits lie.


J Front Gets into Gaming to Drive Young Customers to Buildings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Japan

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

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Marui Group (8252 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

BIGLY Marui Group (8252 JP) Buyback, Backed by Big Dividend Boost

Marui is doing another big buyback. This time more bigly than last year's bigly buyback. And the dividend was upped 67%. Lots of shareholder...

Travis Lundy

J Front Gets into Gaming to Drive Young Customers to Buildings

J Front is more innovative than most businesses with department stores at their core and looks set to reap the benefits as domestic and inbound...

Michael Causton

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

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