Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>When just viewed as a shop building operator, Marui is a mid-sized property firm with a dependence on the Tokyo market. </li>
<li>Its consumer credit business has always been larger and transactions exceeded ¥3 trillion for the first time last year and should hit ¥5 trillion in  FY2025.</li>
<li>Marui also wants to leverage that data to better manage its buildings and identify fast growing businesses to invest in, resulting in more cross-use and growth businesses.</li>
</ul>


When just viewed as a shop building operator, Marui is a mid-sized property firm with a dependence on the Tokyo market. 
Its consumer credit business has always been larger and transactions exceeded ¥3 trillion for the first time last year and should hit ¥5 trillion in  FY2025.
Marui also wants to leverage that data to better manage its buildings and identify fast growing businesses to invest in, resulting in more cross-use and growth businesses.


Marui: Already a ¥3 Trillion Business but Aiming for ¥5 Trillion

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

<ul>
<li>While Marui’s credit card business now has in excess of ¥4 trillion in GTVs, its shopping buildings are also doing outperforming the mall sector.</li>
<li>Sales for all 22 buildings rose 14.5% last year but as much as 24% at some buildings.</li>
<li>This is the result of new tenants, more services and better marketing based on vast in-house data sources. This data-mining capability will get better and is unique to Marui.</li>
</ul>


While Marui’s credit card business now has in excess of ¥4 trillion in GTVs, its shopping buildings are also doing outperforming the mall sector.
Sales for all 22 buildings rose 14.5% last year but as much as 24% at some buildings.
This is the result of new tenants, more services and better marketing based on vast in-house data sources. This data-mining capability will get better and is unique to Marui.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>After a bumper bonus during Covid, the fashion sector saw calmer spending in the last 18 months as the big return to shops led to more muted growth online. </li>
<li>The overall EC fashion market grew around 4-7% depending on how you measure it, but online market share actually fell as people went back to shops.</li>
<li>This in-depth review highlights the key trends in the sector as well as the winners by sales growth among retailers and fashion brands.</li>
</ul>


After a bumper bonus during Covid, the fashion sector saw calmer spending in the last 18 months as the big return to shops led to more muted growth online. 
The overall EC fashion market grew around 4-7% depending on how you measure it, but online market share actually fell as people went back to shops.
This in-depth review highlights the key trends in the sector as well as the winners by sales growth among retailers and fashion brands.


Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

Japan

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

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Marui Group (8252 JP)

Marui: Already a ¥3 Trillion Business but Aiming for ¥5 Trillion

Marui is one of the few really solid bets in Japanese consumer/retail thanks to its mix of a leading consumer finance business and fast evolving...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Marui: A Data Mining Dream Coming True

Marui's credit card business and shopping buildings are thriving, with sales up 14.5% and as much as 24% at some locations, thanks to new tenants,...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Marui: Already a ¥3 Trillion Business but Aiming for ¥5 Trillion

Marui is one of the few really solid bets in Japanese consumer/retail thanks to its mix of a leading consumer finance business and fast evolving...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Marui: A Data Mining Dream Coming True

​Marui's credit card business and shopping buildings are thriving, with sales up 14.5% and as much as 24% at some locations, thanks to new tenants,...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

​Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...

Michael Causton

Marui's credit card business and shopping buildings are thriving, with sales up 14.5% and as much as 24% at some locations, thanks to new tenants,...

Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...