Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels</li>
<li>Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY</li>
</ul>


Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels
Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels
Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>, 75.67%-held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0711/2024071100267.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.</li>
<li>A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI's FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.</li>
<li>The wording in the announcement is unclear - a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI's FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
The wording in the announcement is unclear - a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.


<ul>
<li>In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI <a href="https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May24_STPublicList.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.</li>
<li>JCNC announced yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. </li>
<li>JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI announced  Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.
JCNC announced yesterday that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. 
JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.


Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

<ul>
<li>Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow</li>
<li>Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June</li>
<li>Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY</li>
</ul>


Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow
Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June
Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins</li>
<li>We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing</li>
<li>After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view</li>
</ul>


Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view


Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its sluggish recovery in June, but remains far below 2019 levels. Tourism-linked shares have performed...

Tracking Traffic

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

CKI announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas exchange such as London. But a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The...

David Blennerhassett

Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Jardine Matheson clears 83% in JCNC, up from ~78% at the beginning of the year. I see JCNC's NAV PREMIUM at 17%, down from a recent high of 29%....

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

May outbound Chinese travel demand was strong, apparently driven by tourists shifting flying outside the Asian region. Domestic demand growth also...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Trip.com's Q124 earnings results showed solid top-ine growth and strong core margin improvement. We believe the company's ADSs are attractive below...

Tracking Traffic

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