Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon.

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon. 

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

*Lower Tax Rate Offset By Massive Provisions: CIMB Group (CIMB.MK) [CIMB] reported 4Q20 results of MYR 195.8 mn, increasing MYR 16.7 mn (9.3%) linked quarter. During the period, we noted a  massive reduction in its tax rate from 60.6% in 3Q20 to 18.0% which was additive to bottom-line performance by MYR 70.8 mn. However, this was offset by an enormous increase in loss provisions reflecting a breakdown in credit quality; and   *Credit Risk Now Accelerating: With NCOs of MYR 1.9 bn (accelerating from the MYR 1.2 bn posted in 3Q20), we find that net new NPLs increased MYR 2.6 bn or a whopping 83.5% on an annualized basis. We continue to believe that reserve cover is too light by MYR 12.0 bn (versus MYR 1.5 bn in 3Q20) – which nearly six years of profit before tax or 21.1% of 4Q20 capital.

*Lower Tax Rate Offset By Massive Provisions: CIMB Group (CIMB.MK) [CIMB] reported 4Q20 results of MYR 195.8 mn, increasing MYR 16.7 mn (9.3%) linked quarter. During the period, we noted a  massive reduction in its tax rate from 60.6% in 3Q20 to 18.0% which was additive to bottom-line performance by MYR 70.8 mn. However, this was offset by an enormous increase in loss provisions reflecting a breakdown in credit quality; and   *Credit Risk Now Accelerating: With NCOs of MYR 1.9 bn (accelerating from the MYR 1.2 bn posted in 3Q20), we find that net new NPLs increased MYR 2.6 bn or a whopping 83.5% on an annualized basis. We continue to believe that reserve cover is too light by MYR 12.0 bn (versus MYR 1.5 bn in 3Q20) – which nearly six years of profit before tax or 21.1% of 4Q20 capital. 

CIMB Group – Heading Deeper Into the Woods

*Solid Core Operating Result: CIMB Group (CIMB.MK) [CIMB] reported 3Q20 results of MYR 194 mn, declining MYR 83 mn (30.0%) linked quarter. However, when we exclude securities gains/losses, core operating results actually came in at MYR 293 mn  - exceeding 2Q20 operating losses of MYR 58 mn; and *Credit Risk Decelerating: CIMB’s NPLs declined MYR 999.9 mn (7.5%) to MYR 12.9 bn, and represent 3.38% of total loans – improving 24 bp linked quarter. With NCOs of MYR 1.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs increased MYR 187.5 mn or 5.6% on an annualized basis. Despite the improvement, we believe that reserve cover is too light by MYR 1.5 bn – which represents just over three quarters of profit before tax.

*Solid Core Operating Result: CIMB Group (CIMB.MK) [CIMB] reported 3Q20 results of MYR 194 mn, declining MYR 83 mn (30.0%) linked quarter. However, when we exclude securities gains/losses, core operating results actually came in at MYR 293 mn  - exceeding 2Q20 operating losses of MYR 58 mn; and *Credit Risk Decelerating: CIMB’s NPLs declined MYR 999.9 mn (7.5%) to MYR 12.9 bn, and represent 3.38% of total loans – improving 24 bp linked quarter. With NCOs of MYR 1.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs increased MYR 187.5 mn or 5.6% on an annualized basis. Despite the improvement, we believe that reserve cover is too light by MYR 1.5 bn – which represents just over three quarters of profit before tax. 

*Much Better Than Expected: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] posted 3Q20 net profit of SGD 1.0 bn, an SGD 298 mn (40.8%) increase on a linked quarter basis – well ahead of consensus. Two factors pushed the outperformance: 1) a somewhat justifiable SGD 400 mn (53.3%) decline in loss provisions (unlike DBS Group Holdings [DBS.SP]), as OCBC witnessed “negative”growth in net new NPLs; and 2) a 290 bp decline in its tax rate to 13.1%, which was additive to the bottom-line by SGD 36 mn or 3.6%;*Credit Improving In Reality: By our calculation, given the SGD 99 mn in net recoveries, we find that new new NPL growth was actually negative on an annualized basis at 2.3%. While we are ecstatic to see negative growth in net new NPLs on the back of strong net recoveries of previously charged off loans, we continue to believe that credit risk will remain elevated. As such, we find that reserves should be bolstered by SGD 288 mn – 25% of pre-tax results, which is a far cry from where currently DBS is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 3Q20 bottom-line results of SGD 287.9 mn, declining SGD 9.6 mn (3.2%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding market-related gains, the decline in profits was even more pronounced at SGD 24.6 mn or 9.4% over the period due to new business strain. New Business Embedded Value (NBEV) margins continued their descent to 37.0%  - down 1.1% linked quarter due a weaker Malaysian component. Management’s confidence is low and it anticipates the weaker economic environment to pose continued headwinds, and will reassess the dividend.

*Much Better Than Expected: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] posted 3Q20 net profit of SGD 1.0 bn, an SGD 298 mn (40.8%) increase on a linked quarter basis – well ahead of consensus. Two factors pushed the outperformance: 1) a somewhat justifiable SGD 400 mn (53.3%) decline in loss provisions (unlike DBS Group Holdings [DBS.SP]), as OCBC witnessed “negative”growth in net new NPLs; and 2) a 290 bp decline in its tax rate to 13.1%, which was additive to the bottom-line by SGD 36 mn or 3.6%;*Credit Improving In Reality: By our calculation, given the SGD 99 mn in net recoveries, we find that new new NPL growth was actually negative on an annualized basis at 2.3%. While we are ecstatic to see negative growth in net new NPLs on the back of strong net recoveries of previously charged off loans, we continue to believe that credit risk will remain elevated. As such, we find that reserves should be bolstered by SGD 288 mn – 25% of pre-tax results, which is a far cry from where currently DBS is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 3Q20 bottom-line results of SGD 287.9 mn, declining SGD 9.6 mn (3.2%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding market-related gains, the decline in profits was even more pronounced at SGD 24.6 mn or 9.4% over the period due to new business strain. New Business Embedded Value (NBEV) margins continued their descent to 37.0%  - down 1.1% linked quarter due a weaker Malaysian component. Management’s confidence is low and it anticipates the weaker economic environment to pose continued headwinds, and will reassess the dividend.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* ICIJ Points Fingers Post-Swedbank Fiasco: The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) reviewed over 2,100 suspicious activity reports (SARs), which were filed with the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FINCEN). The report suggests that there was about USD 2 tn in questionable transactions between 1999-2017, which were flagged by the sector’s internal compliance officers from over 90 financial institutions;  and*Expect An Active DOJ Under Biden/Harris: If Biden/Harris win, Deutsche and Turkey’s Halkbank (HALKB.TI) would appear to be most as risk with a more proactive Department of Justice (DOJ). However, not far behind are others including: HSBC Holdings (5.HK/HSBA/LN) and Standard Chartered (2888.HK/STAN.LN). In addition, when mainland Chinese-US relations materially deteriorate under a Biden administration, we would fully anticipate the entire mainland Chinese financial system to be under a magnifying glass.

* ICIJ Points Fingers Post-Swedbank Fiasco: The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) reviewed over 2,100 suspicious activity reports (SARs), which were filed with the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FINCEN). The report suggests that there was about USD 2 tn in questionable transactions between 1999-2017, which were flagged by the sector’s internal compliance officers from over 90 financial institutions;  and*Expect An Active DOJ Under Biden/Harris: If Biden/Harris win, Deutsche and Turkey’s Halkbank (HALKB.TI) would appear to be most as risk with a more proactive Department of Justice (DOJ). However, not far behind are others including: HSBC Holdings (5.HK/HSBA/LN) and Standard Chartered (2888.HK/STAN.LN). In addition, when mainland Chinese-US relations materially deteriorate under a Biden administration, we would fully anticipate the entire mainland Chinese financial system to be under a magnifying glass.

Asia Banks – Watch Your Anti-Money Laundering Risk Again

Malaysia

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

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Maybank (MAY MK)

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Bank Negara Indonesia: Without any detail the MOSOE announced that BBNI will seek a rights offering in 2022. We calculate a minimum loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

CIMB Group – Heading Deeper Into the Woods

CIMB GROUP: CIMB reported 4Q20 results improved 9.3% linked quarter, and highlighted by a massive reduction in its tax rate and an enormous...

Thomas J. Monaco

CIMB Group – Reserve Cover Light Still

CIMB GROUP: Operating results exhibited linked quarter improvement, although stated results declined. Reserve cover remains quite light despite...

Thomas J. Monaco

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid

OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING CORP.: Credit Showing Signs Of Recovery With Negative NPL Growth - Offsetting Weakness In NIMs and Insurance.

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Banks – Watch Your Anti-Money Laundering Risk Again

* ICIJ Points Fingers Post-Swedbank Fiasco: The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) reviewed over 2,100 suspicious...

Thomas J. Monaco

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