Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Equity Bottom-Up

BEC World has lost one third of its market value this year, and the Street is pushing for the stock to fall further by another 4% to Bt23 (currently Bt24). While we think they will succeed, we also believe the stock will recover to around Bt28, implying a conservative 20x PE and upside of more than 20% from the trough. The Company is still a market leader amongst Bangkok women, the most important spending demographic in Thailand from an advertisers' standpoint, and has over Bt6bn in cash. We also explore other Thai media stocks and find that Major Cineplex is also worth watching in the longer term. We do not recommend buying any Thai media stock immediately. Stocks such as Mono have already done too well, and the future of Grammy remains murky despite recent success.

BEC World has lost one third of its market value this year, and the Street is pushing for the stock to fall further by another 4% to Bt23 (currently Bt24). While we think they will succeed, we also believe the stock will recover to around Bt28, implying a conservative 20x PE and upside of more than 20% from the trough. The Company is still a market leader amongst Bangkok women, the most important spending demographic in Thailand from an advertisers' standpoint, and has over Bt6bn in cash. We also explore other Thai media stocks and find that Major Cineplex is also worth watching in the longer term. We do not recommend buying any Thai media stock immediately. Stocks such as Mono have already done too well, and the future of Grammy remains murky despite recent success.

Thailand

Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited operates movie theater chain under Major Cineplex name, and bowling alley chain under Major Bowl name. The Company also provides theater advertising services and concession stand rentals in its movie and bowling complexes.

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Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

BEC World: Resurgent TV Giant

BEC World has lost one third of its market value this year, and the Street is pushing for the stock to fall further by another 4% to Bt23...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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