New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

<ul><li>The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).</li><li>Each offers attractive investment attributes with strong track records of execution.</li><li>Structurally, we like all three companies, with each well positioned for continued growth and favourable returns. </li></ul>

The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&amp;P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).Each offers attractive investment attributes with strong track records of execution.Structurally, we like all three companies, with each well positioned for continued growth and favourable returns. 

Quality Growth Stocks: F&P Healthcare, Mainfreight and EBOS Group - The Creme De La Creme

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.</li><li>Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".</li><li>We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. </li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. 

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.</li><li>A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.</li><li>Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

<ul><li>The economic cycle is weighing on the wider transport sector, accelerating the normalisation in some parts but potentially delaying it in others.</li><li> International freight flows continue to be impacted by global de-stocking, which has also slowed domestic freight in key markets.</li><li>This dynamic reflects a combination of post-COVID normalisation of inventory management ('just in case' back to 'just in time'), and a more conservative end consumer. </li></ul>

The economic cycle is weighing on the wider transport sector, accelerating the normalisation in some parts but potentially delaying it in others. International freight flows continue to be impacted by global de-stocking, which has also slowed domestic freight in key markets.This dynamic reflects a combination of post-COVID normalisation of inventory management ('just in case' back to 'just in time'), and a more conservative end consumer. 

Transport Trends - Patiently Waiting for Green Shoots to Appear

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

Quality Growth Stocks: F&P Healthcare, Mainfreight and EBOS Group - The Creme De La Creme

The quality growth stock landscape in New Zealand is dominated by F&P Healthcare (FPH), Mainfreight (MFT), and EBOS Group (EBO).

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Patiently Waiting for Green Shoots to Appear

The economic cycle is weighing on the wider transport sector, accelerating the normalisation in some parts but potentially delaying it in others.

Forsyth Barr

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