Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.</li>
<li>Unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.</li>
<li>With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.</li>
</ul>


The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.


SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies</li>
<li>We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results</li>
<li>We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda</li>
</ul>


We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies
We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results
We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda


Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins</li>
<li>But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers</li>
<li>One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation</li>
</ul>


We believe SF's core express margins are higher than most of its peers' margins
But on 2023 EV / EBITDA SF trades at multiples below most Chinese, US peers
One objective of SF listing in HK is to attract global investors, lift valuation


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals</li>
<li>We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment</li>
<li>High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's time-definite express service differentiates it from Chinese rivals
We believe SF dominates China's domestic inter-city air express segment
High exposure to air service mostly beneficial, with few risks, in our view


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

<ul>
<li>In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends</li>
<li>Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124</li>
<li>Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024


SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

The SF Holding H-share raise is lower than expectations. No Fast Entry could lead to a lackluster listing. Southbound Connect inclusion on 23 Dec....

Brian Freitas

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

In the run up to SF Holding's secondary listing in Hong Kong, we're "boomerang"-ing some recent Smartkarma insights covering the company and...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)