Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.</li><li>The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the previous quarter.</li><li>Trust income dropped from $194 million in the first quarter to $172 million in the most recent quarter.</li></ul>

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the previous quarter.Trust income dropped from $194 million in the first quarter to $172 million in the most recent quarter.

M&T Bank Corporation: Inside the Strategy Fueling a Consistent Rise in Service Fees & Other Revenues! - Major Drivers

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We focus in on three key issues – unrealized losses on bond holdings, commercial real estate exposure and deposit movements – ahead of US banks’ release of 3Q23 results</li>
<li>Current US Treasury yields imply further erosion of US banks’ adjusted CET1 ratios; we estimate that accumulated unrealized securities losses accounted for 25% of system total equity to June 2023</li>
<li>Bank system deposits are declining, but not alarmingly; CRE exposure is a key potential credit risk for the US banks; we like Capital One and we are cautious on Zions</li>
</ul>


We focus in on three key issues – unrealized losses on bond holdings, commercial real estate exposure and deposit movements – ahead of US banks’ release of 3Q23 results
Current US Treasury yields imply further erosion of US banks’ adjusted CET1 ratios; we estimate that accumulated unrealized securities losses accounted for 25% of system total equity to June 2023
Bank system deposits are declining, but not alarmingly; CRE exposure is a key potential credit risk for the US banks; we like Capital One and we are cautious on Zions


US Banks -  Snapshots Ahead of 3Q23 Results

<ul>
<li>Credit quality risks are rising in US commercial real estate (CRE) and specifically in office property; furthermore, the prospect of increasing US Treasury bond issuance may heighten T-bond volatility</li>
<li>We screen for US banks that have strong capital ratios, that can deliver premium returns and can confront the rising credit quality challenges, especially in CRE</li>
<li>We maintain buys on M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding Capital One with its healthy capital ratios and low office exposure; we recommend profit taking on First Horizon</li>
</ul>


Credit quality risks are rising in US commercial real estate (CRE) and specifically in office property; furthermore, the prospect of increasing US Treasury bond issuance may heighten T-bond volatility
We screen for US banks that have strong capital ratios, that can deliver premium returns and can confront the rising credit quality challenges, especially in CRE
We maintain buys on M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding Capital One with its healthy capital ratios and low office exposure; we recommend profit taking on First Horizon


US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

<ul>
<li>US banks tightening standards for loans, as well as the downturn in loan demand, provides a silver lining for banks by reducing funding pressures as well as the increasing spreads</li>
<li>Among the regional banks, Western Alliance is seeing deposit inflows in 2Q23; more generally, the usage of the Fed’s BTFP and issuance by the FHLB seem well controlled</li>
<li>We stick with our picks M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding First Horizon to the buy list, where valuations stand out along with solid capital ratios and above average returns</li>
</ul>


US banks tightening standards for loans, as well as the downturn in loan demand, provides a silver lining for banks by reducing funding pressures as well as the increasing spreads
Among the regional banks, Western Alliance is seeing deposit inflows in 2Q23; more generally, the usage of the Fed’s BTFP and issuance by the FHLB seem well controlled
We stick with our picks M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance, adding First Horizon to the buy list, where valuations stand out along with solid capital ratios and above average returns


US Regional Banks – Credit Spread Silver Linings to Mitigate Loan Quality and Volume Headwinds

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.</li><li>Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.</li><li>We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a 'Buy' rating.</li></ul>

This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation.Their interest-bearing bank deposits decreased from $41.9 billion to under $25 billion due to their repositioning the balance sheet to use surplus cash.We initiate coverage on the stock of M&T Bank Corporation with a 'Buy' rating.

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

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M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

M&T Bank Corporation: Inside the Strategy Fueling a Consistent Rise in Service Fees & Other Revenues! - Major Drivers

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the...

Baptista Research

US Banks - Snapshots Ahead of 3Q23 Results

US banks face challenges with unrealized bond losses impacting adjusted CET1 ratios, CRE exposure posing credit risks and deposit outflows. We are...

Victor Galliano

US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

We screen US banks for strong core capital ratios, premium returns and for CRE and office exposure; we keep buys on M&T Bank and Western Alliance,...

Victor Galliano

US Regional Banks – Credit Spread Silver Linings to Mitigate Loan Quality and Volume Headwinds

For US banks lower funding pressures and increasing spreads provide a silver lining against credit quality and lower volume headwinds; we like M&T...

Victor Galliano

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation. Their...

Baptista Research

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M&T Bank Corporation: Inside the Strategy Fueling a Consistent Rise in Service Fees & Other Revenues! - Major Drivers

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the...

Baptista Research

US Banks - Snapshots Ahead of 3Q23 Results

​US banks face challenges with unrealized bond losses impacting adjusted CET1 ratios, CRE exposure posing credit risks and deposit outflows. We are...

Victor Galliano

US Banks – A Closer Look at Office Exposure and Revisiting Capital Adequacy

We screen US banks for strong core capital ratios, premium returns and for CRE and office exposure; we keep buys on M&T Bank and Western Alliance,...

Victor Galliano

US Regional Banks – Credit Spread Silver Linings to Mitigate Loan Quality and Volume Headwinds

For US banks lower funding pressures and increasing spreads provide a silver lining against credit quality and lower volume headwinds; we like M&T...

Victor Galliano

M&T Bank Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Playing The Rate Hike Well And Creating An Investor Safe Haven – Key Drivers

This is our first report on a regional lender that played the rate hike well with its high-quality deposit base – M&T Bank Corporation. Their...

Baptista Research

US banks face challenges with unrealized bond losses impacting adjusted CET1 ratios, CRE exposure posing credit risks and deposit outflows. We are...