Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deposit outflows for 1Q23 in the most affected of the mid-sized US banks were in low double digits, much less severe than the deposit collapse suffered by First Republic</li>
<li>In fact, since the end of 1Q23, some smaller banks have reported slightly positive deposit flows, and the recent usage of Fed and FHLB funding lines is not alarming</li>
<li>We review a select group of mid-sized US banks focusing in on a number of key metrics; despite the challenging times, we like M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance</li>
</ul>


Deposit outflows for 1Q23 in the most affected of the mid-sized US banks were in low double digits, much less severe than the deposit collapse suffered by First Republic
In fact, since the end of 1Q23, some smaller banks have reported slightly positive deposit flows, and the recent usage of Fed and FHLB funding lines is not alarming
We review a select group of mid-sized US banks focusing in on a number of key metrics; despite the challenging times, we like M&amp;T Bank and Western Alliance


US Banks – Is System Deposit Flight Being Contained?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.</li><li>Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net charge-offs decreasing and GAAP net income increasing by 7%.</li><li>While economic uncertainty persists, M&T Bank's historical outperformance during uncertain times underscores its resilience and potential for shareholder value creation.</li></ul>

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net charge-offs decreasing and GAAP net income increasing by 7%.While economic uncertainty persists, M&T Bank's historical outperformance during uncertain times underscores its resilience and potential for shareholder value creation.

M&T Bank Corporation: What Is Their Biggest Growth Catalysts? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.</li><li>The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the previous quarter.</li><li>Trust income dropped from $194 million in the first quarter to $172 million in the most recent quarter.</li></ul>

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the previous quarter.Trust income dropped from $194 million in the first quarter to $172 million in the most recent quarter.

M&T Bank Corporation: Inside the Strategy Fueling a Consistent Rise in Service Fees & Other Revenues! - Major Drivers

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

<ul>
<li>There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. </li>
<li>Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.</li>
<li>We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.</li>
</ul>


There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. 
Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.
We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.


US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

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M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

US Banks – Is System Deposit Flight Being Contained?

US regional bank deposit outflows are far from the deposit collapse at First Republic in 1Q23; recent usage of Fed and FHLB funding lines has...

Victor Galliano

M&T Bank Corporation: What Is Their Biggest Growth Catalysts? - Major Drivers

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. Revenues grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with net...

Baptista Research

M&T Bank Corporation: Inside the Strategy Fueling a Consistent Rise in Service Fees & Other Revenues! - Major Drivers

M&T Bank Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. The quarter's net income was $867 million, a 24% increase over the...

Baptista Research

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

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