Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<strong> Good Morning Japan</strong>:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. <strong>FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.</strong>
</li>
<li>OVERSEAS: STRONG Jobs numbers- dent in Fed pivot narrative; BUT Nov Manuf PMI supportive w/Contraction; SPX -0.1%, intraday-Lower left upper right day; Big airplane UAL order for BA. </li>
<li>JAPAN: Focus: WCup. JP vs Croatia tonight;  USDJPY 134 handle; Energy security: Govt wants LNG reserves+New plants; Weak Nov retail numbers; Retailer Nojima blazing the trail with +6% wage hike</li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.

OVERSEAS: STRONG Jobs numbers- dent in Fed pivot narrative; BUT Nov Manuf PMI supportive w/Contraction; SPX -0.1%, intraday-Lower left upper right day; Big airplane UAL order for BA. 
JAPAN: Focus: WCup. JP vs Croatia tonight;  USDJPY 134 handle; Energy security: Govt wants LNG reserves+New plants; Weak Nov retail numbers; Retailer Nojima blazing the trail with +6% wage hike


Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ad sales were weaker than we expected and the company has revised full-year guidance for that business down. That is not surprising in light of the macro environment</li>
<li>But it also implies potential ad revenue erosion YoY in H2 which we have never seen before. Even at the worst of the Covid crisis, ad revenue growth was positive</li>
<li>Management appears more confident in hitting FY22 EBITDA targets as it has room to maneuver on the timing of investment spending but we think FY23 targets are looking tougher</li>
</ul>


Ad sales were weaker than we expected and the company has revised full-year guidance for that business down. That is not surprising in light of the macro environment
But it also implies potential ad revenue erosion YoY in H2 which we have never seen before. Even at the worst of the Covid crisis, ad revenue growth was positive
Management appears more confident in hitting FY22 EBITDA targets as it has room to maneuver on the timing of investment spending but we think FY23 targets are looking tougher


Z Holdings (Neutral) - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Ad Sales Weak but LINE Accounts Hold Up

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments </li>
<li>That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed</li>
<li>An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments 
That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed
An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure


Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Quick (Q)-commerce continues to grow, with rapid home delivery providing a new level of convenience to meet demand from busy, urban consumers.  </li>
<li>Z Holdings’ team of Yahoo, Askul and Demae-can have run what is now called Yahoo Mart since 2020 which has opened its first three retail stores, a new omnichannel model.</li>
<li>Given the data analysis and supply chain power of its backers, these stores could quickly become a thorn in the side of the big convenience store chains.</li>
</ul>


Quick (Q)-commerce continues to grow, with rapid home delivery providing a new level of convenience to meet demand from busy, urban consumers.  
Z Holdings’ team of Yahoo, Askul and Demae-can have run what is now called Yahoo Mart since 2020 which has opened its first three retail stores, a new omnichannel model.
Given the data analysis and supply chain power of its backers, these stores could quickly become a thorn in the side of the big convenience store chains.


Yahoo Mart's Q-Conbini Stores: A Potential Competitor to the Big 3 CVS?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As a follow-on to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-october-2022-rebal-big-names-with-big-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81835" rel="noopener">TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows</a> which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.</li>
<li>In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.</li>
<li>Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.</li>
</ul>


As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Good Morning Japan | Fed Raised Hopes-Dashed by Jobs but PMI Supportive

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP...

Mark Chadwick

Z Holdings (Neutral) - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Ad Sales Weak but LINE Accounts Hold Up

PayPay impressed in its pre-consolidation quarter and management has re-iterated FY22 financial targets but a weak macro environment has hurt high...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

The MHLW is likely to update rules on digital wage payments by fiscal year end, opening the door for cashless apps to participate. That is positive...

Kirk Boodry

Yahoo Mart's Q-Conbini Stores: A Potential Competitor to the Big 3 CVS?

All big 3 e-commerce firms in Japan now have an omnichannel model to win out in the next big fight for share: FMCG. Z Holdings' has been slower...

Michael Causton

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

This companion piece to the first October 2022 FFW Rebalance piece shows both large (>¥5bn) and small (¥1-5bn) intra-sector flows. Using the flows...

Travis Lundy

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