Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p><p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p><p>We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.</p><p>Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Gland Pharma Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gland-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29723:1" rel="noopener">Gland Pharma (7172753Z IN)</a> raised around US$900m in one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. The company was established in 1978 by P.V.N. Raju. KKR invested in the company in 2014 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> bought a 74% stake in the company in 2017. </p>
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<p>I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gland-pharma-ipo-high-on-growth-but-low-on-details" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gland Pharma IPO - High on Growth but Low on Details.</a></p>
<p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>
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Gland Pharma (7172753Z IN) raised around US$900m in one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. The company was established in 1978 by P.V.N. Raju. KKR invested in the company in 2014 and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) bought a 74% stake in the company in 2017. 


I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note, Gland Pharma IPO - High on Growth but Low on Details.
In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.


Gland Pharma IPO Trading - Squeezed Through, Now for the Real Test

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gland-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29723:1" rel="noopener">Gland Pharma (7172753Z IN)</a> aims to raise around US$900m in what would be one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. The company was established in 1978 by P.V.N. Raju. KKR invested in the company in 2014 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> bought a 74% stake in the company in 2017. </p><p>Gland Pharma was one of the fastest growing generic injectables-focused companies by revenue in the United States from 2014 to 2019. GP sells its products primarily via a B2B model in over 60 countries, including US, Europe, Canada, Australia, and India. It also operates a B2C model in India.</p><p>GP’s revenue has grown at 28.78% CAGR over FY18-20 and was up another 29.4% in 1Q21. At the same time, PAT margins have increased from 19.2% in FY18 to 34.2% in 1Q21. Thus, PAT has grown at 55.15% CAGR and was up another 70.6% in 1Q21. </p><p>However, the company hasn’t provided a whole lot of details about the revenue breakdown for its products. In addition, not all the pre-IPO shareholders will be locked-up post listing.</p>

Gland Pharma (7172753Z IN) aims to raise around US$900m in what would be one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. The company was established in 1978 by P.V.N. Raju. KKR invested in the company in 2014 and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) bought a 74% stake in the company in 2017. Gland Pharma was one of the fastest growing generic injectables-focused companies by revenue in the United States from 2014 to 2019. GP sells its products primarily via a B2B model in over 60 countries, including US, Europe, Canada, Australia, and India. It also operates a B2C model in India.GP’s revenue has grown at 28.78% CAGR over FY18-20 and was up another 29.4% in 1Q21. At the same time, PAT margins have increased from 19.2% in FY18 to 34.2% in 1Q21. Thus, PAT has grown at 55.15% CAGR and was up another 70.6% in 1Q21. However, the company hasn’t provided a whole lot of details about the revenue breakdown for its products. In addition, not all the pre-IPO shareholders will be locked-up post listing.

Gland Pharma IPO - High on Growth but Low on Details

<div><p>The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The upcoming rebalance will be effective 22 June 2020 and the announcement of the changes will be done on 22 May 2020. Passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on 19 June 2020.</p></div><div>
<p>In this review, we see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> being excluded and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1">Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1"></a>being included. This index review uses data from November of the previous year to the last trading day in April, so there is a possibility of the names changing between now and the end of April, especially in this volatile market.</p>
<p>In this Insight, we look the index methodology, performance of past index reviews, summary of flows in this review, and take a look at some potential trades.</p>
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The S&amp;P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The upcoming rebalance will be effective 22 June 2020 and the announcement of the changes will be done on 22 May 2020. Passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on 19 June 2020.
In this review, we see a high probability of Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) being excluded and Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) being included. This index review uses data from November of the previous year to the last trading day in April, so there is a possibility of the names changing between now and the end of April, especially in this volatile market.
In this Insight, we look the index methodology, performance of past index reviews, summary of flows in this review, and take a look at some potential trades.


Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Corona Virus shadows are glooming all over the world, and these fears have just begun. As a major highlight of 2020, the virus has conquered the financial streets as well resulting in bloodbaths across all the major indices. However, one industry for which a major threat awaits to prolong is the Indian Pharmaceuticals, whose supply chain is likely going to shred into major disruptions.</p>

Corona Virus shadows are glooming all over the world, and these fears have just begun. As a major highlight of 2020, the virus has conquered the financial streets as well resulting in bloodbaths across all the major indices. However, one industry for which a major threat awaits to prolong is the Indian Pharmaceuticals, whose supply chain is likely going to shred into major disruptions.

COVID-19 : A Viral Threat to Pharma Supply Chain

India

Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.

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Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Halfway through the review period, we take a look at stocks that could migrate across the large, mid and small cap segments. With over US$100bn of...

Brian Freitas

Gland Pharma IPO Trading - Squeezed Through, Now for the Real Test

Gland Pharma raised around US$900m in one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. The company was established in 1978. KKR invested in 2014 and Fosun...

Sumeet Singh

Gland Pharma IPO - High on Growth but Low on Details

Gland Pharma aims to raise around US$900m in what would be one of India’s largest IPOs in 2020. Fosun Pharmaceutical bought a 74% stake in the...

Sumeet Singh

Sensex Rebalance Preview: Early Look

The S&P BSE Sensex is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap...

Brian Freitas

COVID-19 : A Viral Threat to Pharma Supply Chain

Corona Virus shadows are glooming all over the world, and these fears have just begun. As a major highlight of 2020, the virus has conquered the...

Nitin Mangal

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