Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/los-andes-copper-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35434:1" rel="noopener">Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN)</a> published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.</li>
<li>In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener">,  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener"> have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.</a>
</li>
</ul>



Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN) published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.
In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. 

Lundin Mining (LUN CN),  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.



Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. </li>
<li>We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China announces bolder stimulus for 2025, signaling more rate cuts and commodity prices surge</li><li>Lundin Mining sells assets to focus on Vicuna project, raising questions on copper and zinc market dynamics</li><li>Boliden acquires assets from Lundin, strengthening their position in the copper and zinc markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

China announces bolder stimulus for 2025, signaling more rate cuts and commodity prices surgeLundin Mining sells assets to focus on Vicuna project, raising questions on copper and zinc market dynamicsBoliden acquires assets from Lundin, strengthening their position in the copper and zinc marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. </li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lundin-mining-lun-cn-cheap-play-on-copper" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168213" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper.</a> </li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 


Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

Sweden

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUMISDB SS)

Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

Los Andes Copper is a sitting duck in the current copper M&A frenzy. Lundin, Hudbay and Glencore have all recently announced copper acquisitions....

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

We initiate First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), a Canadian copper miner with assets in Zambia/Panama. We analyze the bull-bear spread and risk to the...

Sameer Taneja

$1.5B for a 4th Quartile Mine?

China announces bolder stimulus, commodity stocks rise, Lundin Mining sells assets, focusing on copper mining, while Boliden acquires Nevis Corvo...

Money of Mine

Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

The copper market remains range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How...

Sameer Taneja

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