A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups.</li><li>Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced situations primed for profit e.g. TDS-PV and FF .</li><li>Whilst a lot of focus in investing is on deep diving the fundamentals, the first easy pennies are often acquired via identification of a profitable set-up and thus, being able to identify profitable patterns is an important skill to hone.</li></ul>

Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups.Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced situations primed for profit e.g. TDS-PV and FF .Whilst a lot of focus in investing is on deep diving the fundamentals, the first easy pennies are often acquired via identification of a profitable set-up and thus, being able to identify profitable patterns is an important skill to hone.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a solid FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s outlook for FY24 looks equally encouraging. Its various brands are expected to grow by 10-30% YoY still.  </li>
<li>Listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> will provide Rmb1.6bn non-recurring gain in 1H24. For the full year, there will be a positive swing in its profit contribution. </li>
<li>Anta Sports can be considered as a sportswear brand incubator, and its premium PERs of 18.3x and 15.9x for FY24 and FY25 reflect the ability to brew new brands. </li>
</ul>


After a solid FY23, Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s outlook for FY24 looks equally encouraging. Its various brands are expected to grow by 10-30% YoY still.  
Listing of Amer Sports (AS US) will provide Rmb1.6bn non-recurring gain in 1H24. For the full year, there will be a positive swing in its profit contribution. 
Anta Sports can be considered as a sportswear brand incubator, and its premium PERs of 18.3x and 15.9x for FY24 and FY25 reflect the ability to brew new brands. 


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Sustains Strengths into FY24

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:</li><li>Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !</li><li>The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !</li></ul>

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  </li>
</ul>



Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Snow-Peak-plans-330m-management-buyout-with-Bain-help" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “<em>in the range of 1,200 yen per share.</em>”</li>
<li>Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”
Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

United States

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

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Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)

A trading framework: Calling the recoil

Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups. Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced...

Acid Investments

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Sustains Strengths into FY24

Anta's 1Q24 sales were lower than the full-year target, with ANTA brand up mid-single digit, FILA brand up high-single digit, and other brands up...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news & chatter: Bears Make Headlines & Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As...

Maverick Equity Research

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

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