HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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China's construction machinery industry concluded 2020 with very solid sales growth of 56.4% for excavators and 10.2% for wheel loaders in Dec. Even on the back of the COVID-19 disruption early in the year, full-year growth still reached 39% and 6%, respectively. While domestic sales continued to hover at high levels in the month, we witnessed a pick up in the export momentum in Dec versus Nov.
In our view, the solid demand growth will extend well into FY21 as overseas demand strengthens and domestic demand sustains their boost by infrastructure investments. We believe outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xcmg-construction-machin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:426:1" rel="noopener">Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> continue to be encouraging in 2021 after a marvelous 2020.
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China's construction machinery industry concluded 2020 with very solid sales growth of 56.4% for excavators and 10.2% for wheel loaders in Dec. Even on the back of the COVID-19 disruption early in the year, full-year growth still reached 39% and 6%, respectively. While domestic sales continued to hover at high levels in the month, we witnessed a pick up in the export momentum in Dec versus Nov.
In our view, the solid demand growth will extend well into FY21 as overseas demand strengthens and domestic demand sustains their boost by infrastructure investments. We believe outlook for Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH), Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) continue to be encouraging in 2021 after a marvelous 2020.


China Construction Machinery: Good to the Last Drop

In this Insight, we review our three best trades - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> - in 2020. Based on our calls, these trades generated at least 42%, 37.5% and 81.6%, respectively, in this year, without staying 100% of the time in the market.As for 2021, we believe the current levels for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> are still attractive in building new positions, while for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>, we will wait for a pull-back to HK$12.0-13.0 levels before we re-establish our position.

In this Insight, we review our three best trades - Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK), Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) and SITC International (1308 HK) - in 2020. Based on our calls, these trades generated at least 42%, 37.5% and 81.6%, respectively, in this year, without staying 100% of the time in the market.As for 2021, we believe the current levels for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) and Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) are still attractive in building new positions, while for SITC International (1308 HK), we will wait for a pull-back to HK$12.0-13.0 levels before we re-establish our position. 

Our Three Best Trades in 2020! and How Will We Position for 2021?

Even with an extremely strong sales performance in this year, the excavator industry is still expecting promising outlook for 2021, with the projected sales growth ranging between 5% and 20%.  The positive tone of the industry should bode well for China's construction machinery sector in next year - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xcmg-construction-machin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:426:1" rel="noopener">Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>.As for Nov, excavator sales growth sustained the powerful trend with a 68% YoY increase, driven partly by a recovery in export momentum. Wheel loader sales have moderated lightly to 7.4% in the month, but remained ahead of the 11M20 growth rate of 5.8%. We like Lonking's quality management and sound financial position. The stock now trades on attractive 4.8x PER, 0.81x P/B and 11.3% yield for FY20, with net cash amounting to 31% of its market cap.

Even with an extremely strong sales performance in this year, the excavator industry is still expecting promising outlook for 2021, with the projected sales growth ranging between 5% and 20%.  The positive tone of the industry should bode well for China's construction machinery sector in next year - Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH), Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Lonking Holdings (3339 HK).As for Nov, excavator sales growth sustained the powerful trend with a 68% YoY increase, driven partly by a recovery in export momentum. Wheel loader sales have moderated lightly to 7.4% in the month, but remained ahead of the 11M20 growth rate of 5.8%. We like Lonking's quality management and sound financial position. The stock now trades on attractive 4.8x PER, 0.81x P/B and 11.3% yield for FY20, with net cash amounting to 31% of its market cap.

China Construction Machinery: Industry Players Expressed Bullish Outlook for 2021

Equity Bottom-Up

After an underperforming 1H20, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> has rapidly caught up with the industry in its unit sales performance. Sales of wheel loaders and excavators for 10M20 now achieved a 5% and 14% growth, respectively, compared with -2.6% and -11.2% respectively in 1H20, suggesting powerful pick-up in the last several months. Growth in products including forklifts and road rollers has also boosted all product categories to positive growth in 10M20.We forecast 2H20 core earnings will grow 20.5% YoY (vs. -6.4% YoY in 1H20), but its share price now only trades on 0.8x P/B, exactly at historical average. Such multiple looks low relative to a projected ROE of 19%, the highest in the last five years. We also see its Rmb0.61/share of net cash (or 32% of share price) comfortably sustaining its 54% payout ratio, leading to an attractive 11.5% dividend yield.

After an underperforming 1H20, Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) has rapidly caught up with the industry in its unit sales performance. Sales of wheel loaders and excavators for 10M20 now achieved a 5% and 14% growth, respectively, compared with -2.6% and -11.2% respectively in 1H20, suggesting powerful pick-up in the last several months. Growth in products including forklifts and road rollers has also boosted all product categories to positive growth in 10M20.We forecast 2H20 core earnings will grow 20.5% YoY (vs. -6.4% YoY in 1H20), but its share price now only trades on 0.8x P/B, exactly at historical average. Such multiple looks low relative to a projected ROE of 19%, the highest in the last five years. We also see its Rmb0.61/share of net cash (or 32% of share price) comfortably sustaining its 54% payout ratio, leading to an attractive 11.5% dividend yield.  

Lonking (3339 HK): Rapid Catch-Up in Unit Sales, Further Backed by Attractive Yield

China's construction and infrastructure machinery sector maintained an encouraging momentum in Sep and close out 3Q20 with strengths. We see no signs of slowing down despite the rapid recovery in 2Q20. Sales of excavators and wheel loaders rose 64.8% YoY and 16.3% YoY in Sep, respectively; which is the strongest growth in the last two months. This is a reflection of the increase in infrastructure investments after the massive special purpose bonds issued by the local governments in the last four months.We expect the rise in infrastructure spending and recovery in export demand to drive the industry's positive outlook in the next 12 months, benefiting names including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xcmg-construction-machin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:426:1" rel="noopener">Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a>.  Backed by an undemanding 0.82x P/B, catch up in unit sales and attractive dividend yield of 10.7%, Lonking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener"></a>stands out with particular favourable risk-return payoff, in our view.

China's construction and infrastructure machinery sector maintained an encouraging momentum in Sep and close out 3Q20 with strengths. We see no signs of slowing down despite the rapid recovery in 2Q20. Sales of excavators and wheel loaders rose 64.8% YoY and 16.3% YoY in Sep, respectively; which is the strongest growth in the last two months. This is a reflection of the increase in infrastructure investments after the massive special purpose bonds issued by the local governments in the last four months.We expect the rise in infrastructure spending and recovery in export demand to drive the industry's positive outlook in the next 12 months, benefiting names including Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH) and Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK).  Backed by an undemanding 0.82x P/B, catch up in unit sales and attractive dividend yield of 10.7%, Lonking stands out with particular favourable risk-return payoff, in our view.

China Construction Machinery: No Sign of Slowing Down

China

Lonking Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures and sells wheel loaders and infrastructure machinery in the People's Republic of China.

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Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)

China Construction Machinery: Good to the Last Drop

Strong unit sales of excavators (+56.4%) and wheel loaders (+10.2%) in Dec and recovery in export momentum suggested a positive trend for the start...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our Three Best Trades in 2020! and How Will We Position for 2021?

We review our three best trades in 2020 which generated returns of at least 42%, 37.5% and 81.6%, respectively; and we lay out our strategy for the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Construction Machinery: Industry Players Expressed Bullish Outlook for 2021

Industry expectation of 5-20% growth in excavator sales in 2021 is bullish to China's construction machinery sector; and while not the largest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Rapid Catch-Up in Unit Sales, Further Backed by Attractive Yield

Lonking has a rapid leap in unit sales in Sep and Oct, driving positive growth across all product categories in 10M20, vs. declines in 1H20. ROE of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Construction Machinery: No Sign of Slowing Down

Both excavator and wheel loader sales are good in Sep and show no sign of slowing down. We believe China construction machinery industry will stay...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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