Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

<ul>
<li>China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023</li>
<li>Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence </li>
</ul>


China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023
Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023
In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence 


China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China Property: The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China Property / Housing Markets: Real Estate Foresight's take on the 2024 outlook for new home sales, new starts, and the major themes for the...

Robert Ciemniak

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

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