Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the world, even if their performance is measured on local currency basis. We have updated our currency impact tables post-Brexit for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates…

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the world, even if their performance is measured on local currency basis. We have updated our currency impact tables post-Brexit for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates…

Post-Brexit Currency Impact Tables - For International Property Investors

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

United Kingdom

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

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Lloyds Banking (LLOY LN)

Macro Chart Focus: Brexit and the Yen

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF...

Naomi Fink

UK Subsidiaries of Asian Banks

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are...

Daniel Tabbush

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

Post-Brexit Currency Impact Tables - For International Property Investors

With global capital flows in real estate at historical highs, property investors need to pay greater attention to currency dynamics across the...

Robert Ciemniak

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

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