Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas.

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us believe the global equity market is not yet out of the woods. We are watching for signs of a turn of the tide. There has been significant damage inflicted and that damage is going to take time to repair. Actionable Themes in this report have representation in Staples, Health Care, Technology, and a collection of bottom-up ideas. 

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. With the global economy likely headed for a recession (or worse) we believe it is important to stay with the Sectors that have been outperforming amid the COVID-19 pandemic as we believe they are likely to continue outperforming. That means we are sticking primarily with Staples, Health Care, and Technology. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks the single-minded shift of retailing to integrate e-commerce with traditional retailing.
Japan still has much to offer customers in the high street and these physical stores are now being heavily supplemented through online channels. Already we’re seeing the role of some stores shift towards showrooms making management more efficient and meaningful.
Japan is set to see the e-commerce sector as big as 20% of retail sales by 2024 and many of the operational problems holding online retail back globally, such as last mile fulfilment, could well be solved first in Japan.
Amazon, Rakuten and Softbank/Z/Zozo dominate the market and this dominance looks set to continue but other players are growing too with some retailers also finally working out how to make e-commerce work.

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks the single-minded shift of retailing to integrate e-commerce with traditional retailing.
Japan still has much to offer customers in the high street and these physical stores are now being heavily supplemented through online channels. Already we’re seeing the role of some stores shift towards showrooms making management more efficient and meaningful.
Japan is set to see the e-commerce sector as big as 20% of retail sales by 2024 and many of the operational problems holding online retail back globally, such as last mile fulfilment, could well be solved first in Japan.
Amazon, Rakuten and Softbank/Z/Zozo dominate the market and this dominance looks set to continue but other players are growing too with some retailers also finally working out how to make e-commerce work.

Japanese E-Commerce Review 2020: Softbank/Z, Rakuten and Amazon to Dominate Further

Equity Bottom-Up

Aeon has become the Japanese partner to Ocado, one of the best online supermarket and systems providers for food and FMCG retailing in the world.Ocado works with only one company per country, so Aeon has stolen a lead on its rivals by gaining access to Ocado’s deep experience and world-class technology.The potential is there but to make it work, Aeon has to force its hundreds of subsidiary CEOs and suppliers into line and invest heavily in the necessary systems.

Aeon has become the Japanese partner to Ocado, one of the best online supermarket and systems providers for food and FMCG retailing in the world.Ocado works with only one company per country, so Aeon has stolen a lead on its rivals by gaining access to Ocado’s deep experience and world-class technology.The potential is there but to make it work, Aeon has to force its hundreds of subsidiary CEOs and suppliers into line and invest heavily in the necessary systems.

Aeon's Tie with UK’s Ocado: A Chance for Online Food Leadership – but Not for a While

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce generates more revenues overall, but for merchandise alone, the ‘conbini’ or ‘CVS’ sector is still ¥2 trillion larger.It is also the most concentrated of any in retailing, with just three major companies and, depending on how you look at it, the most profitable. There is every chance that the dynamic nature of convenience retailing, along with its close integration with Japanese work practices and society as a whole, will provide room for further growth in the medium-term, but the current growth rate is about to slow.FY2019 marks the first reduction in new store opening plans among the top three chains for more than a decade, and investment is now shifting to existing stores and new ideas to ensure continued customer interest.

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce generates more revenues overall, but for merchandise alone, the ‘conbini’ or ‘CVS’ sector is still ¥2 trillion larger.It is also the most concentrated of any in retailing, with just three major companies and, depending on how you look at it, the most profitable. There is every chance that the dynamic nature of convenience retailing, along with its close integration with Japanese work practices and society as a whole, will provide room for further growth in the medium-term, but the current growth rate is about to slow.FY2019 marks the first reduction in new store opening plans among the top three chains for more than a decade, and investment is now shifting to existing stores and new ideas to ensure continued customer interest.

Convenience Stores: Saturation but Still Growth for Some

Japan

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

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Life Corp (8194 JP)

Major Indexes Testing Resistance

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts. Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equities (ACWI-US) Likely to Retest the March Low

We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the...

Vermilion Research

Japanese E-Commerce Review 2020: Softbank/Z, Rakuten and Amazon to Dominate Further

What statistics are available suggest that Japan lags behind China, USA and the UK in terms of e-commerce penetration but this position overlooks...

Michael Causton

Aeon's Tie with UK’s Ocado: A Chance for Online Food Leadership – but Not for a While

Aeon has become the Japanese partner to Ocado, one of the best online supermarket and systems providers for food and FMCG retailing in the...

Michael Causton

Convenience Stores: Saturation but Still Growth for Some

The convenience store sector is today the single largest channel in Japanese retailing. Combining both merchandise and digital services, e-commerce...

Michael Causton

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