Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as “Adequate”. The score mirrors our assessment of parent Liberty Latin America (LLA), which discloses ESG-related information on a consolidated basis, without meaningful details on the bond-issuing credit pools that we cover (C&amp;W Communications and Liberty Puerto Rico).  We assess LLA’s Social and Governance pillars as “Strong” and “Adequate”, respectively, offsetting the “Weak” Environmental score. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as “Adequate”. The score mirrors our assessment of parent Liberty Latin America (LLA), which discloses ESG-related information on a consolidated basis, without meaningful details on the bond-issuing credit pools that we cover (C&amp;W Communications and Liberty Puerto Rico).   We assess LLA’s Social and Governance pillars as “Strong” and “Adequate”, respectively, offsetting the “Weak” Environmental score. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 

Liberty Costa Rica - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Liberty Latin America  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LILAK has experienced a decline in funds and lack of investor interest, leading to its lowest stock price ever</li><li>Challenges include leverage and delayed synergies from an acquisition</li><li>Despite this, the company has promising mid-term guidance of over $1 billion in free cash flow, with plans for stock buybacks and deleveraging, making it a potential investment opportunity for growth and recovery.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

LILAK has experienced a decline in funds and lack of investor interest, leading to its lowest stock price everChallenges include leverage and delayed synergies from an acquisitionDespite this, the company has promising mid-term guidance of over $1 billion in free cash flow, with plans for stock buybacks and deleveraging, making it a potential investment opportunity for growth and recovery.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Liberty Latin America Ltd (LILAK) - Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Liberty has waived the 95% threshold condition. Liberty has now mandatorily opened again the tender given it owns more than 90% (93.43%),  on same terms until 13 September (settlement 27 September).</li>
<li>At 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 5.4x EV/20e EBITDA for Orange Belgium minorities), the offer is relatively cheap, but also reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and risk of market share losses.</li>
<li>Spread is positive. After the second acceptance period closes, I believe the delisting is extremely likely. With limited liquidity and floor dividend no longer guaranteed, recommendation is accept the offer. </li>
</ul>


Liberty has waived the 95% threshold condition. Liberty has now mandatorily opened again the tender given it owns more than 90% (93.43%),  on same terms until 13 September (settlement 27 September).
At 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 5.4x EV/20e EBITDA for Orange Belgium minorities), the offer is relatively cheap, but also reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and risk of market share losses.
Spread is positive. After the second acceptance period closes, I believe the delisting is extremely likely. With limited liquidity and floor dividend no longer guaranteed, recommendation is accept the offer. 


Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.</li>
<li>Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).</li>
</ul>


Telenet has announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it sets out its recommendation of the Offer.
The offer is opportunistic and optically generous, with neither interloper risk nor sweetening to be expected. I believe most investors will cash out. Liberty could eventually drop the acceptance threshold.
Given the ambiguity surrounding both the company and the sector in Belgium, I still think Liberty might acquire Telenet for almost a bargain. Spread is 2.38%/19.8% (gross/annualised).


Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

<ul>
<li>Liberty intends to launch an offer to acquire the minorities in its subsidiary Telenet, taking advantage of the drop in the share price over the last two years.</li>
<li>Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect to BEL-20 index and shares of Telenet peers prior results announcement.</li>
<li>My fair value estimate (DCF based) is €16.2, i.e. 26% downside to the intended offer price. Spread is 5.2%/15.6% (gross/annualised). Cautious long.</li>
</ul>


Liberty intends to launch an offer to acquire the minorities in its subsidiary Telenet, taking advantage of the drop in the share price over the last two years.
Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect to BEL-20 index and shares of Telenet peers prior results announcement.
My fair value estimate (DCF based) is €16.2, i.e. 26% downside to the intended offer price. Spread is 5.2%/15.6% (gross/annualised). Cautious long.


Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

United States

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

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Liberty Global Plc Series C (LBTYK US)

Liberty Costa Rica - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty Latin America Ltd (LILAK) - Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024

LILAK has experienced a decline in funds and lack of investor interest, leading to its lowest stock price ever. Challenges include leverage and...

Value Investors Club

Liberty/Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

The offer is relatively cheap, but reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and market share losses. After the reopened period...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 59% premium, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, with conditions: a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liberty Costa Rica - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

Liberty Latin America Ltd (LILAK) - Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024

LILAK has experienced a decline in funds and lack of investor interest, leading to its lowest stock price ever. Challenges include leverage and...

Value Investors Club

Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

The offer is relatively cheap, but reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh's entrance and market share losses. After the reopened period...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/​Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period

On 7 June, Telenet announced the publication of the prospectus. The Board of Directors of Telenet has prepared a response memorandum in which it...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 59% premium, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, with conditions: a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty/Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

Liberty/Telenet: Opening of Acceptance Period