Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As of 8 May, we see three potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> at the June rebalance. This is mainly driven by the inclusions.</li>
<li>There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks with the largest impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> at nearly 4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing on the potential adds as they have run up a lot in the last few months.</li>
</ul>


As of 8 May, we see three potential changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) at the June rebalance. This is mainly driven by the inclusions.
There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks with the largest impact on BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) at nearly 4 days of ADV.
Short interest has been increasing on the potential adds as they have run up a lot in the last few months.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new share placement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.</li>
<li>With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. </li>
<li>An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. </li>
</ul>


The new share placement of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.
With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. 
An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. 


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.</li>
<li>There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.
The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.
There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.


Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. </li>
<li>Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. 
Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

China

Li Ning Company Limited researches, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails sports footwear, apparel and accessories for sport and leisure use.

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Li Ning (2331 HK)

FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

There could be 3 changes for the FXI in June. Some stocks are close to the add/delete zone, so relative perf needs to be watch. Passive trackers...

Brian Freitas

Screening for GEMs: May 2023

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

With proceeds to be used for debt repayment, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook long-term benefits. News flow...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Anta Sports has completed a top-up placement of 119m shs at HK$99.18, an 8.84% discount to the last close. Given the limited increase in float,...

Brian Freitas

Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the...

Sumeet Singh

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