High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

United States

Horace Mann Educators Corporation is an insurance holding company.  The Company markets and underwrites personal lines of property and casualty insurance, retirement annuities, and life insurance.  Horace Mann markets its products primarily to educators and other employees of public schools and their families.

National Western Life Group, Inc. operates as a life insurance company. The Company offers life and term life insurance products. National Western Life Group serves customers throughout the United States.

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as an insurance agency. The Company offers home, auto, motorcycle, umbrella, flood, landlord, life, business, commercial auto, product liability, and recreational insurance services. Goosehead Insurance serves customers in the United States.

Stewart Information Services Corporation provides title insurance and related services through locations in the United States and several international markets. The Company meets the needs of real estate and mortgage industries through the electronic delivery of services required for settlement. Stewart's services include title reports, flood determinations, and credit reports.

Employers Holdings, Inc. provides workers' compensation insurance.  The Company focuses on small businesses involved in low to medium hazard industries.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides personal lines property and casualty insurance focused exclusively on the Massachusetts market.  The Company's principal product line is private passenger automobile insurance.  In addition, Safety Insurance offers commercial automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella and business owner policies.

Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. offers property casualty insurance and reinsurance. The Company offers excess and surplus lines, select markets, and international specialty insurance.

HCI Group, Inc. offers property/casualty insurance.  The Company offers homeowners', condominium owners', and tenants' insurance.

SiriusPoint Ltd. operates as a global insurance and reinsurance company. The Company offers services in insurance lines which includes environmental, property, energy, workers compensation, and aviation and space, and reinsurance lines includes life, accident and health, property, marine and energy, casualty, and credit and bond. SiriusPoint serves customers worldwide.

AMERISAFE, Inc. provides workers' compensation insurance focused on small to mid-sized employers involved in hazardous industries, principally construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, oil and gas, maritime, and sawmills.

Hanwha Life Insurance Co., Ltd. offers life insurance services and reinsurance services.  The Company also does insurance against loss business, beverages business, real estate rental, and securities investment business through its subsidiaries.

Wuestenrot & Wuerttembergische AG is a financial services company.  The Company offers housing finance and building society savings accounts, as well as life insurance, real estate, and investment products. W&W is the result of the merger between Wuestenrot Beteiligungs-AG and Wuerttembergische AG VersicherungsBeteiligungsgesellschaft.

Just Group PLC provides financial services. The Company specializes in de-risking solutions, retirement income products, mortgages, financial advice, and guidance services to individual customers, financial intermediaries, corporate clients, and pension scheme trustees. Just Group serves customers worldwide.

Protector Forsikring ASA underwrites casualty insurance throughout Norway.  The Company focuses on delivering standard insurance products to the SME market, the public sector and the affinity market (grouped arrangements).

Vaudoise Assurances Holding SA, also known as Vaudoise Versicherungen Holding, is an insurance holding company, offering, through its affiliates, life, health, accident, property, commercial, motor vehicle, liability and legal protection insurance services, among others. The Company operates through a network of Swiss offices and affiliates in Spain and Italy.

Bao Viet Holdings, through its subsidiaries, engages in insurance, reinsurance, financial investment, fund management, securities, banking, and real estate services businesses in Vietnam. The Life Insurance segment offers a range of whole life, pure endowment, term life, endowment, bancassurance, annuity, universal life, healthcare and personal accident riders, and other life insurance products, as well as reinsurance assumed and ceded in life, healthcare insurance, and personal accident. The Non-life Insurance segment provides health and personal accident, property, cargo, hull-P&I, general indemnity, aviation, automobile, fire and special risk, agriculture, and other insurance products; and assumes and cedes reinsurance for various non-life insurance products. The Financial Services segment offers fund management, investment portfolio management, security brokerage and trading, investment consulting services, etc.; investment management services to policyholders; and security brokerage, securities underwriting and issuance agency, securities trading, custody, investment, and financial consulting services. The Banking Services segment provides various banking services, such as handling individual customer deposits, and deposit and current accounts for corporate and institutional customers; and provision of consumer loans, overdrafts, credit card facilities, and fund transfer services. The Real Estate Operations and Other Activities segment is involved in the rental and development of various real estate projects. The company also engages in the real estate investment and consulting activities; provision of machinery and equipment; and vocational driving training operations. It offers its services through approximately 150 branches in 63 cities and provinces. Bao Viet Holdings was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

PSC Insurance Group Limited provides insurance brokerage services. The Company offers services such as risk management, workers compensation, business protection, worth insurance, claims settlements. PSC Insurance Group conducts its business globally.

Anadolu Hayat Emeklilik AS is a life insurance company offering its services in Turkey. The Company is active in both private pension and life insurance markets and operates through regional sales offices in Turkey.

Momentum Metropolitan Holdings operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services such as individual life assurance, group life assurance, employee benefits, health insurance, and credit life products. Momentum Metropolitan Holdings serves customers in South Africa.

Mercuries Life Insurance Co., Ltd. offers diversify life insurance products and services.

Lemonade, Inc. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers artificial intelligence (AI) based technology for fire, property, liability, and other related insurance policy issuing and claim settlements. Lemonade serves customers in the United States.

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Lemonade Inc (LMND US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

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