Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inversion curve popped last week, gave jitters to investors about recession. Las Vegas Sands offers attractive yield as well as upside ahead.</li>
<li>It's dominant Asia focus is a fortress against possible US recession paying a US$3.08 dividend protected by positive long term trends in Macau and Singapore.</li>
<li>China's economy still grew at 6.2% according to the IMF despite headwinds and augers positive for LVS's strength in the mass gaming sector.</li>
</ul>


Inversion curve popped last week, gave jitters to investors about recession. Las Vegas Sands offers attractive yield as well as upside ahead.
It's dominant Asia focus is a fortress against possible US recession paying a US$3.08 dividend protected by positive long term trends in Macau and Singapore.
China's economy still grew at 6.2% according to the IMF despite headwinds and augers positive for LVS's strength in the mass gaming sector.


Las Vegas Sands: It's 5.88% Yield Is Case Enough to Own the Stock at US$55 a Share.

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau. </p>

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau. 

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.</p>

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

<ul>
<li>Odds favor top three: Las Vegas Sands, MGM and Melco. Our best bet: LVS.</li>
<li>Though winner won't likely open before 2025, expect a spike in the stock by Q4.</li>
<li>Osaka sure bet to open first. Tokyo and Yokohama remain indifferent to date.</li>
</ul>


Odds favor top three: Las Vegas Sands, MGM and Melco. Our best bet: LVS.
Though winner won't likely open before 2025, expect a spike in the stock by Q4.
Osaka sure bet to open first. Tokyo and Yokohama remain indifferent to date.


Japan Casinos: The Race for Osaka Heats Up; Here Are the Odds for the Favorites and Why

<ul>
<li>A mixture of China headwinds and slowing VIP segment has taken a disproportionate toll on LVS valuations against peers.</li>
<li>Mass gaming growth is ramping ahead at double digit rates. LVS dominates that segment without a close second due to its room inventory.</li>
<li>The company has committed over US$2bn in expanding and retiming its Cotai central properties to serve the segment of the market growing most rapidly.</li>
</ul>


A mixture of China headwinds and slowing VIP segment has taken a disproportionate toll on LVS valuations against peers.
Mass gaming growth is ramping ahead at double digit rates. LVS dominates that segment without a close second due to its room inventory.
The company has committed over US$2bn in expanding and retiming its Cotai central properties to serve the segment of the market growing most rapidly.


Asia Gaming: Las Vegas Sands at the Crossroads of Ignition as Business Model Matches Market Growth

United States

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors: 1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Japan Casinos: The Race for Osaka Heats Up; Here Are the Odds for the Favorites and Why

Odds favor top three: Las Vegas Sands, MGM and Melco. Our best bet: LVS. Though winner won't likely open before 2025, expect a spike in the stock...

Howard J Klein

Asia Gaming: Las Vegas Sands at the Crossroads of Ignition as Business Model Matches Market Growth

A mixture of China headwinds and slowing VIP segment has taken a disproportionate toll on LVS valuations against peers. Mass gaming growth is...

Howard J Klein

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Las Vegas Sands: It's 5.88% Yield Is Case Enough to Own the Stock at US$55 a Share.

Inversion curve popped last week, gave jitters to investors about recession. Las Vegas Sands offers attractive yield as well as upside ahead. It's...

Howard J Klein

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors: 1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Japan Casinos: The Race for Osaka Heats Up; Here Are the Odds for the Favorites and Why

Odds favor top three: Las Vegas Sands, MGM and Melco. Our best bet: LVS. Though winner won't likely open before 2025, expect a spike in the stock...

Howard J Klein

Asia Gaming: Las Vegas Sands at the Crossroads of Ignition as Business Model Matches Market Growth

A mixture of China headwinds and slowing VIP segment has taken a disproportionate toll on LVS valuations against peers. Mass gaming growth is...

Howard J Klein