Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 6th May 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a>'s publicly-listed subsidiaries <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-infotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro Infotech (LTI IN)</a> announced plans to merge.</li>
<li>I discussed this situation previously in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mindtree-lti-a-potential-us-20bn-indian-tech-merger-mindtree-could-outperform-lti" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:68634" rel="noopener">Mindtree-LTI: A Potential US$20bn+ Indian Tech Merger; Mindtree Could Outperform LTI</a> when the ratio was 0.66, expecting a scrip ratio north of 0.70.  </li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the details of the transaction and the outlook for the combined entity.</li>
</ul>


On 6th May 2022, Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)'s publicly-listed subsidiaries Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) and Larsen &amp; Toubro Infotech (LTI IN) announced plans to merge.
I discussed this situation previously in Mindtree-LTI: A Potential US$20bn+ Indian Tech Merger; Mindtree Could Outperform LTI when the ratio was 0.66, expecting a scrip ratio north of 0.70.  
Below is a closer look at the details of the transaction and the outlook for the combined entity.


Mindtree-LTI: Merger Announced to Form India's 5th Largest IT Services Player

<ul>
<li>On Monday, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> was planning a merger between its public-listed subsidiaries <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-infotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro Infotech (LTI IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The companies have responded by saying that the news reports of a merger between MINDTREE and LTI are "<em>speculative in nature</em>".</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the likelihood of this Deal and the valuations of the two companies involved in this event.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) was planning a merger between its public-listed subsidiaries Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) and Larsen &amp; Toubro Infotech (LTI IN). 
The companies have responded by saying that the news reports of a merger between MINDTREE and LTI are "speculative in nature".
Below is a closer look at the likelihood of this Deal and the valuations of the two companies involved in this event.


Mindtree-LTI: A Potential US$20bn+ Indian Tech Merger; Mindtree Could Outperform LTI

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India moves to largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers.  Current underweight the highest on record.</li>
<li>Among Value managers, India saw net fund outflows of $322m, the underweight increase by -1.92% and a further 7.7% of managers move to underweight over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> is the key underweight, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro </a>have been avoided by EM Value managers altogether.</li>
</ul>


India moves to largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers.  Current underweight the highest on record.
Among Value managers, India saw net fund outflows of $322m, the underweight increase by -1.92% and a further 7.7% of managers move to underweight over the last 6-months.

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is the key underweight, whilst Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) and Larsen &amp; Toubro have been avoided by EM Value managers altogether.


Value Funds Move to Record Underweight in India

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

India

GMR Infrastructure is an infrastructure company with interests in airports, power and roads. The Company is developing a greenfield international airport at Hyderabad, and is also operating, managing and developing the Delhi airport. Additionally, it is involved in development and operation of power plants and road projects in India.

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited is an infrastructure development and construction company in India with significant experience in the roads and highways sector.  The Company is also involved in the real estate development sector.

NBCC (India) Limited provides construction and engineering services. The Company constructs residential, commercial, and institutional buildings, as well as offers services, including project conceptualization, feasibility studies, construction drawings, detailed project reports, and project consulting services.

Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited manufactures transmission line towers for power distribution which are sold to The Power Grid Corporation of India and State Electricity Boards. The Company also exports its products to various countries and it also develops real estate.

NCC Ltd. is a construction company. The Group undertakes civil and structural infrastructure projects, real estate development and light engineering projects.

KEC International Limited is a power transmission company which is involved in the design, manufacture, supply and construction of turnkey projects of power transmission lines. The company also installs fiber optical cable and provides services for Satellite/GPRS surveys.

Engineers India Limited is a design and engineering company in the field of petroleum refineries, petrochemicals, oil and gas processing, offshore structures and platforms, fertilizers, metallurgy and power. EIL provides services such as design, engineering, procurement, construction management, commissioning assistance and project management.

Praj Industries Limited is an engineering firm that provides solutions for distillery and brewery wastewater treatment and utilization. The Company's fermentation systems include technology packages for multiple feedstock including cane molasses, cane juice and filtrate, starch based raw material like corn, sorghum, wheat, tapioca and tropical sugarbeet.

Techno Electric & Engineering Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company generates, transmits, and distributes wind power and electricity, as well as provides engineering and project management services. Techno Electric & Engineering serves customers in India.

Techno Electric & Engineering (TECHNOE IN)

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

Quanta Services, Inc. provides specialized contracting services to electric utilities, telecommunication and cable television operators, and governmental entities.  The Company also installs transportation control and lighting systems and provides specialty electric power and communication services for industrial and commercial customers.  Quanta operates projects throughout North America.

China State Construction Engineering Corporation Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise. The Company engages in housing construction, international building contracting, property development and investment, and infrastructure construction.

EMCOR Group, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical construction and facilities services around the world.  The Company specializes in the design, installation, integration, and start-up of distribution systems for electrical power, lighting systems, low-voltage systems such as fire and security alarms, voice and data communication systems, ventilation systems, and plumbing and piping systems.

Ferrovial SA is an infrastructure operator and industrial company. The Company operates in multiple countries in a range of sectors including construction, airport, toll road, and municipal services.  Ferrovial SA also has a services division in which they provide facility management, infrastructure maintenance and upkeep, and energy and waste management services.

VINCI SA is a global player in concessions and construction with expertise in building, civil, hydraulic, and electrical engineering. The Company offers construction-related specialities and road materials production, as well as finance, management, operations and maintenance of public infrastructure such as motorways, airports, and road and rail infrastructures.

Bouygues SA offers construction services, develops real estate, offers cellular communications services, produces television programming and movies, and manages utilities.  The Company offers building, civil engineering, and oil and gas contracting services, develops residential, commercial, and office projects, produces and distributes water and electricity, and collects waste.

Power Construction Corporation of China, Ltd provides electric utility line construction services. The Company develops and constructs hydropower engineering, water works engineering, thermal power engineering, new energy engineering, and other projects. Power Construction China also operates property development.

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited provides transportation infrastructure construction services. The Company constructs railway, highway, urban track, and other infrastructure. China Railway Construction also provides real estate development and materials trading services.

China Railway Construction Cor (601186 CH)

WSP Global Inc. offers engineering services.  The Company offers professional services in the areas of construction, energy, the environment, mining, municipal infrastructure, project management, telecommunications, and transportation.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd manufactures engineering equipment, undertakes large scale engineering projects, and acts as the Indian representative for a number of overseas manufacturers of heavy machinery. The Company's products include bulldozers, road rollers, dairy machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical plants, switchgears, food processing machinery and feed milling plants.

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Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)

Mindtree-LTI: Merger Announced to Form India's 5th Largest IT Services Player

Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)'s public-listed subsidiaries Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN) and Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI IN) announced plans to merge. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mindtree-LTI: A Potential US$20bn+ Indian Tech Merger; Mindtree Could Outperform LTI

Indian Tech Companies MINDTREE and LTI could announce a merger as early as next week and our analysis shows MINDTREE could outperform LTI in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Value Funds Move to Record Underweight in India

India moves to the largest underweight country holding among EM Value managers. Current underweight the highest on record.

Steven Holden

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

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