Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. </p><p>That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). </p><p>According to a Reuters article...</p><blockquote><p data-testid="paragraph-3">"We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.</p></blockquote><div><div><div><div><blockquote><div id="reuters_desktop_native_1">It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.</div></blockquote></div></div></div></div><p>This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. </p><p>To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4311502/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the <em>"Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"</em></p><p>On Friday, Caixin Media <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-08-06/exclusive-one-court-will-handle-developer-evergrandes-multitude-of-debt-lawsuits-101751875.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... </p><blockquote><p>A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.</p></blockquote><p>The article notes that other companies which have been subject to <em>centralized jurisdiction</em> include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-02-02/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-53-billion-yuan-in-debt-101659497.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defaulted</a> on repayment of debt in February, and <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-03-10/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-another-13-billion-in-debt-101673624.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">again</a> in March. </p><p>Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews <a href="https://min.news/en/economy/aff8aa102018d13ea3af930f62859bdb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"</p><p>Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.</p><p>It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. </p>

On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). According to a Reuters article..."We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement link in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"On Friday, Caixin Media reported that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.The article notes that other companies which have been subject to centralized jurisdiction include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which defaulted on repayment of debt in February, and again in March. Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews article quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. 

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.</p>

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

<p>Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?</p>

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

<p>Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.</p>

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

<p>The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.</p>

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

China

Langfang Development Co Ltd designs, manufactures, and markets mill  rolls. The Company's products include centrifuged iron rolls, forged steel rolls, grain rolls, and other mill rolls.

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Langfang Development (600149 CH)

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

Evergrande bad news again chips away at the bonds. Late last week saw the 2nd downgrade by S&P in 10 days, and a "centralisation of jurisdiction"...

Travis Lundy

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2017 City Picks

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case of Chongqing

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case Of Shanghai

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest...

Robert Ciemniak

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