Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly</li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY</li>
<li>Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY</li>
<li>CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY
Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY
CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.


KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing its worst day in over a month</li>
<li>All three major indexes logged their third consecutive day of losses on soaring Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.25%</li>
<li>Lam Research (LRCX US)  shares rose nearly 4% after hours following better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.</li>
</ul>


Stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing its worst day in over a month
All three major indexes logged their third consecutive day of losses on soaring Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.25%
Lam Research (LRCX US)  shares rose nearly 4% after hours following better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue.


United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Ohayo Japan | Day 3 of Losses

Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Ohayo Japan | Day 3 of Losses

​Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.

Mark Chadwick

Stocks plummet as Dow Jones has worst day in over a month due to soaring Treasury yields, while Lam Research shares surge on strong Q1 results.