Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.</li>
<li>
<p>TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.</p>
</li>
</ul>


TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.

TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.


Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.



TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.</li>
<li>ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023</li>
<li>ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.
ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023
ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?


ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Applied guided -1% q/q and Lam Research guided 8% q/q sales growth, below N.A. front end semi equipment billings' 12% q/q growth, room for analysts to raise their 4Q23E sales. </li>
<li>N.A. front end equipment sales reached US$3.775bn, up 1% m/m, down 5% y/y but back end equipment billings reached US$222mn in December, down 8% m/m and down 9% y/y.</li>
<li>Better than equipment vendors, WSTS/SIA reported November sales of US$48bn, up 3% m/m and up 5% y/y (the first month to turn positive after 14 months of consecutive y/y decline)</li>
</ul>


Applied guided -1% q/q and Lam Research guided 8% q/q sales growth, below N.A. front end semi equipment billings' 12% q/q growth, room for analysts to raise their 4Q23E sales. 
N.A. front end equipment sales reached US$3.775bn, up 1% m/m, down 5% y/y but back end equipment billings reached US$222mn in December, down 8% m/m and down 9% y/y.
Better than equipment vendors, WSTS/SIA reported November sales of US$48bn, up 3% m/m and up 5% y/y (the first month to turn positive after 14 months of consecutive y/y decline)


From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lam Research (LRCX US)

TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Its the first week of earnings, and it's already a busy one. TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on...

Fabricated Knowledge

ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, + 7.5% QoQ. Q124 guided at €5.25 billion, - 27% QoQ. Reiterated '24 guidance flat YoY. Share surge >8% overnight....

William Keating

From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research

From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research; Applied and Lam guided below 4Q23 N.A. front...

Andrew Lu

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)