Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*NIM Driven Bottom-line: L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH.IN) [LTFH] reported FY 3Q21 operating results of INR 2.9 bn, increasing INR 260 mn (9.8%) linked quarter. Much of LTFH’s strength during the quarter was attributed to net interest income growth of INR 2.1 bn (15.8%) associated with improving cost of funds (down 72 bp linked quarter) on liquidity improvement.*Credit Risk Challenges: While LTFH would like to have the investment community believe that it has turned the corner with credit, that notion is patently false. Inclusive of INR 12.8 mn in NCOs, we calculate a continued acceleration of net new NPL growth to 101% on an annualized basis – which is troubling. We calculate that reserves need a boost close to INR 80 bn or nearly five years of pre-tax earnings; and   *Banking License May Be Out of Reach: LTFH's Tier-1 ratio was 17.8% at FY 3Q21. However, if our reserve shortfall analysis is correct, LTFH’s stated Tier 1 capital ratio will be quite challenged, leaving it short of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) plan for larger NBFCs to become banks.

*NIM Driven Bottom-line: L&amp;T Finance Holdings (LTFH.IN) [LTFH] reported FY 3Q21 operating results of INR 2.9 bn, increasing INR 260 mn (9.8%) linked quarter. Much of LTFH’s strength during the quarter was attributed to net interest income growth of INR 2.1 bn (15.8%) associated with improving cost of funds (down 72 bp linked quarter) on liquidity improvement.*Credit Risk Challenges: While LTFH would like to have the investment community believe that it has turned the corner with credit, that notion is patently false. Inclusive of INR 12.8 mn in NCOs, we calculate a continued acceleration of net new NPL growth to 101% on an annualized basis – which is troubling. We calculate that reserves need a boost close to INR 80 bn or nearly five years of pre-tax earnings; and   *Banking License May Be Out of Reach: LTFH's Tier-1 ratio was 17.8% at FY 3Q21. However, if our reserve shortfall analysis is correct, LTFH’s stated Tier 1 capital ratio will be quite challenged, leaving it short of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) plan for larger NBFCs to become banks.

L&T Finance Holdings – Credit Risk Jeopardizes Bank License

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&amp;FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent parent company became apparent, the bank finally disclosed its total exposure to the beleaguered leviathan in the late hours of October 31. In the analysts call arranged by the bank the following day to discuss this disclosure, nobody in the senior management of the bank was held to account for 8% of the bank’s capital going up in smoke. (Nor did the servile sell-side analysts demand such accountability.) The absence of basic financial analysis by the bank for providing the Rs 20 bn bridge loan may well be an example of how Indusind Bank evaluates large ticket loans. Investors should be concerned about how many such loans have been liberally handed out to book lucrative fees upfront. The stock market, though, rewarded the bank for its disclosure, and the stock closed 2.8% up in a flat market.

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&amp;FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent parent company became apparent, the bank finally disclosed its total exposure to the beleaguered leviathan in the late hours of October 31. In the analysts call arranged by the bank the following day to discuss this disclosure, nobody in the senior management of the bank was held to account for 8% of the bank’s capital going up in smoke. (Nor did the servile sell-side analysts demand such accountability.) The absence of basic financial analysis by the bank for providing the Rs 20 bn bridge loan may well be an example of how Indusind Bank evaluates large ticket loans. Investors should be concerned about how many such loans have been liberally handed out to book lucrative fees upfront. The stock market, though, rewarded the bank for its disclosure, and the stock closed 2.8% up in a flat market.

Is IL&FS the Only Cockroach in Indusind Bank’s Portfolio?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation 

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27025" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27025:1">IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base to meet future capital requirements.In this insight, we will examine the company's past performance, analyze the corporate and SME lending industry in which the company is currently operating in, and compare it to other listed NBFC peers. Last, but not least, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN) is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base to meet future capital requirements.In this insight, we will examine the company's past performance, analyze the corporate and SME lending industry in which the company is currently operating in, and compare it to other listed NBFC peers. Last, but not least, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

IndoStar Capital Finance IPO Review - Loans and Advances Growth Stalled in 1H 2018

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

India

L&T Finance Holdings Limited is a financial holding company. The Company offers a diverse range of financial products and services across the corporate, retail, and infrastructure finance sectors, as well as fund products and investment services.

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L&T Finance Holdings (LTFH IN)

L&T Finance Holdings – Credit Risk Jeopardizes Bank License

L&T FINANCE: LTFH reported a FY 3Q21 result increase of 9.8% linked quarter. Continued acceleration of net new NPL growth and a reserve shortfall...

Thomas J. Monaco

Is IL&FS the Only Cockroach in Indusind Bank’s Portfolio?

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent...

Hemindra Hazari

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had...

Asia Advisors

IndoStar Capital Finance IPO Review - Loans and Advances Growth Stalled in 1H 2018

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN) is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

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