Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP)</a> and the department store <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/606/original/2020-09-30_06-18-07.png?1601414298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162606"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/607/original/2020-09-29_06-15-33.png?1601414581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162607"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>16 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/735/original/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?1600826665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h3m1giwbtzcupg/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEAK OUTLIER</a> - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/736/original/2020-09-23_11-11-07.png?1600827080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160736"></figure>
</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP))</a>  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/741/original/2020-09-23_11-39-24.png?1600828791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160741"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.<div class="content-highlight">RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
PEAK OUTLIER - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  

SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( Japan Post (6178 JP))  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> shares. 
The dynamics of the offering itself - its internal flow dynamics (who buys? why? when? and who else buys later?) - were discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-corp-9434-bigger-block-offering" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42689" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering</a>. This came a day after it was announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> would sell nearly ¥400bn in an IPO to be launched in September 2020, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-ipo-the-flow-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42648" rel="noopener">Kioxia IPO - The Flow Dynamics</a>. 
What is not discussed is the significantly large funding trade which has to come.
There is  ¥1.47trln of Softbank Corp shares to be bought at last trade, and if the stock falls to its March low and trades at a 3% discount from there, there is still near ¥1.35trln of stock to buy. There is another ¥378bn of Kioxia to buy at the indicative IPO price. All together it is probably ¥1.7trln of stock to buy. 
That's enough money that it comes from savings rather than sofa cushions and while it is enticing to think that Japan's savers will pull $15bn from bank deposits earning 0.001% a year, what usually needs to happen is investors pull money from shares where they have a profit, and sell those to buy the next new thing.
So Japan's retail savers will have to cough up nearly ¥1.2trln for those two deals, and foreign institutional investors will have to fork over ¥600bn. 
For foreigners, that is less than 0.5% of all Japanese stock held. For retail holders, it is about 1.3% of what they hold. It is big enough to matter. 
So the question is what will they sell and what are trades we can do around that?

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by Softbank Group (9984 JP) of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares. 
The dynamics of the offering itself - its internal flow dynamics (who buys? why? when? and who else buys later?) - were discussed in Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering. This came a day after it was announced that Kioxia (6600 JP) would sell nearly ¥400bn in an IPO to be launched in September 2020, discussed in Kioxia IPO - The Flow Dynamics. 
What is not discussed is the significantly large funding trade which has to come.
There is  ¥1.47trln of Softbank Corp shares to be bought at last trade, and if the stock falls to its March low and trades at a 3% discount from there, there is still near ¥1.35trln of stock to buy. There is another ¥378bn of Kioxia to buy at the indicative IPO price. All together it is probably ¥1.7trln of stock to buy. 
That's enough money that it comes from savings rather than sofa cushions and while it is enticing to think that Japan's savers will pull $15bn from bank deposits earning 0.001% a year, what usually needs to happen is investors pull money from shares where they have a profit, and sell those to buy the next new thing.
So Japan's retail savers will have to cough up nearly ¥1.2trln for those two deals, and foreign institutional investors will have to fork over ¥600bn. 
For foreigners, that is less than 0.5% of all Japanese stock held. For retail holders, it is about 1.3% of what they hold. It is big enough to matter. 
So the question is what will they sell and what are trades we can do around that?

Softbank & Kioxia "Replacement Trades" Iffy. Buy NTT Vs Docomo Instead

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a> AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged Japan Airlines stock price has declined by just 14%. Both companies face similar challenges from Covid-19 and concerns over the pace of any recovery. In the ‘peak virus’ quarter ended June, JAL recorded a 78% collapse in revenue and a negative 172% EBIT margin, while Kyushu Rail reported a 38% revenue decline and a mere negative 80% EBIT margin. 
So why did Kyushu Railway underperform?

Since Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged Japan Airlines stock price has declined by just 14%. Both companies face similar challenges from Covid-19 and concerns over the pace of any recovery. In the ‘peak virus’ quarter ended June, JAL recorded a 78% collapse in revenue and a negative 172% EBIT margin, while Kyushu Rail reported a 38% revenue decline and a mere negative 80% EBIT margin. 
So why did Kyushu Railway underperform? 

Japan

Kyushu Railway Company, doing business as JR Kyushu, offers transportation services. The Company provides passenger and railway freight services, as well as route, ticket, and time table information. JR Kyushu serves customers in Japan.

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Kyushu Railway (9142 JP)

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Our Q3 screen delivered 600bps of under performance. With volatility is set to increase as we head into H1 2020, which stocks are most at risk in...

David Lepper

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

Softbank & Kioxia "Replacement Trades" Iffy. Buy NTT Vs Docomo Instead

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by Softbank Group (9984 JP) of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares. The dynamics of the offering itself...

Travis Lundy

JR Kyushu (9142) - Riding Out the Storm

Since Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged...

Mark Chadwick

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Our Q3 screen delivered 600bps of under performance. With volatility is set to increase as we head into H1 2020, which stocks are most at risk in...

David Lepper

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

Softbank & Kioxia "Replacement Trades" Iffy. Buy NTT Vs Docomo Instead

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by Softbank Group (9984 JP) of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares. The dynamics of the offering itself...

Travis Lundy

JR Kyushu (9142) - Riding Out the Storm

Since Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito