Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 
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At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 
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source: Capital IQ
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Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). 
In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). Accumulate on weakness.

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated to the COVID-19 spread and the regional government policies on PSBB (lockdown). 
In this insight, a discussion on empirical data that shows a correlation between traffic and share price and while the PSBB will hurt share price in the short run, it will not be for a long term and once it is reopened again, traffic will come back and workers back-to-office (WFH to WFO) have benefited Bluebird in the past few months. Bluebird is currently trading at 0.5x PBR (a 70% discount to the peers) and 5x EV/EBITDA (a 40% discount to the peers). Accumulate on weakness. 

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activities<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/443/original/ports5.JPG?1454570524" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5443"></figure>Note: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/444/original/ports6.JPG?1454570793" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5444"></figure> Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Hong Kong

Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides designated bus routes services, non-franchised and franchised bus services, and other transportation services.  The Company also provides tour and hotel service.  In addition, Kwoon Chung Bus operates in power generation.

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Kwoon Chung Bus Hldgs (306 HK)

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

With most of its revenues are generated from the greater Jakarta area, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is positively correlated t

Henry Soediarko

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Reasonable port valuation supports M&A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0xSource:...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr....

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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