External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

<ul><li>Q3FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/20% YoY and 4%/-4% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~224 stocks), with their four-year CAGRs at 13%/18%</li><li>There was similar participation by large and midcap categories towards incremental earnings growth as large-cap grew by 20% YoY and midcap grew by 21% YoY</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q3FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/20% YoY and 4%/-4% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~224 stocks), with their four-year CAGRs at 13%/18%There was similar participation by large and midcap categories towards incremental earnings growth as large-cap grew by 20% YoY and midcap grew by 21% YoYContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy: Input Cost Benefits Drive Earnings Growth, Revenue Contribution Muted

<ul><li>Over the last year, the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small-Cap 100 have delivered returns of 22%, 56% and 66% respectively</li><li>Given such returns, it is prudent to pause and analyse the current valuation levels of these indices and their constituents which will be a key determinant of their future returns</li><li>We have analysed all indices and their constituents’ historical break-ups, sectoral composition shifts, and valuation swings (using P/B as a common metric).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over the last year, the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small-Cap 100 have delivered returns of 22%, 56% and 66% respectivelyGiven such returns, it is prudent to pause and analyse the current valuation levels of these indices and their constituents which will be a key determinant of their future returnsWe have analysed all indices and their constituents’ historical break-ups, sectoral composition shifts, and valuation swings (using P/B as a common metric).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Valuation of Indices: All Indices and Most Sectors in the Overheated Zone

<ul><li>ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) managed to clock another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY), offset by higher credit costs (39bps of loans) on account of additional provisioning for investment in AIF (INR6.27bn), while maintaining its asset quality and a healthy PCR (~81%)</li><li>Healthy deposit growth (+18% YoY) came in largely in the form of retail TDs as the CASA ratio dipped further to 39.6% (-112bps QoQ), resulting in a 19-bps QoQ spike in the cost of deposits</li><li>Despite an improving retail mix, yields remained flat, and NIMs softened to 4.43% (-10bps QoQ) and are likely to trend lower</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) managed to clock another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY), offset by higher credit costs (39bps of loans) on account of additional provisioning for investment in AIF (INR6.27bn), while maintaining its asset quality and a healthy PCR (~81%)Healthy deposit growth (+18% YoY) came in largely in the form of retail TDs as the CASA ratio dipped further to 39.6% (-112bps QoQ), resulting in a 19-bps QoQ spike in the cost of depositsDespite an improving retail mix, yields remained flat, and NIMs softened to 4.43% (-10bps QoQ) and are likely to trend lowerContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

<ul><li>ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) clocked another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY) and lower credit costs (23bps of loans), maintaining its robust asset quality alongside a healthy PCR (~83%)</li><li>Loan growth was driven by healthy deposit growth (+19% YoY), largely retail TDs as the CASA ratio eased to 40.8% (-222bps QoQ), resulting in a 22-bps QoQ spike in the cost of deposits</li><li>With limited yield reflation despite improving retail mix, NIMs softened by 25bps QoQ to 4.53% and are likely to trend further lower</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) clocked another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY) and lower credit costs (23bps of loans), maintaining its robust asset quality alongside a healthy PCR (~83%)Loan growth was driven by healthy deposit growth (+19% YoY), largely retail TDs as the CASA ratio eased to 40.8% (-222bps QoQ), resulting in a 22-bps QoQ spike in the cost of depositsWith limited yield reflation despite improving retail mix, NIMs softened by 25bps QoQ to 4.53% and are likely to trend further lowerContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Metro Brands, CreditAccess Grameen

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy: Input Cost Benefits Drive Earnings Growth, Revenue Contribution Muted

Q3FY24 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/20%...

HDFC Securities

Valuation of Indices: All Indices and Most Sectors in the Overheated Zone

Over the last year, the key benchmark indices Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small-Cap 100 have delivered returns of 22%, 56% and 66%...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) managed to clock another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY), offset by higher credit costs (39bps...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Metro Brands, CreditAccess Grameen

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) clocked another steady quarter on the back of consistent loan growth (+18% YoY) and lower credit costs (23bps of loans)

HDFC Securities

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