Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

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Sum of the value of SK Square and SK Telecom post split - Using our base case valuations of SK Square and SK Telecom post split, the combined market caps of these two companies would be 30.2 trillion won, which is 38% higher than the current market cap of 21.9 trillion won.
<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Square (post split) is 48% higher than the initial  value of SK Square.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is 31% higher than the initial value of SK Telecom. </li>
</ul>
</div>Our base case valuation of SK Square is an implied market cap of 12.8 trillion won, which would be 48% higher than the initial market cap of 8.6 trillion won for SK Square (using current market cap of 21.9 trillion won for SK Telecom and split ratio of (0.607:0.393). Our base case valuation of SK Square uses a 40% holdco discount rate. The biggest component of the NAV include SK Square's stake in SK Hynix (13.7 trillion won), ADT Caps (2.5 trillion won), and 11st (2.2 trillion won).Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is implied market cap of 17.5 trillion won, which would be 31% higher than the initial market cap (adjusted for split ratio) of 13.3 trillion won for the company. We have used EV/EBITDA ratio of 5x using our estimated EBITDA of 4.5 trillion won for the company in 2022.


Sum of the value of SK Square and SK Telecom post split - Using our base case valuations of SK Square and SK Telecom post split, the combined market caps of these two companies would be 30.2 trillion won, which is 38% higher than the current market cap of 21.9 trillion won.

Our base case valuation of SK Square (post split) is 48% higher than the initial  value of SK Square.
Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is 31% higher than the initial value of SK Telecom. 

Our base case valuation of SK Square is an implied market cap of 12.8 trillion won, which would be 48% higher than the initial market cap of 8.6 trillion won for SK Square (using current market cap of 21.9 trillion won for SK Telecom and split ratio of (0.607:0.393). Our base case valuation of SK Square uses a 40% holdco discount rate. The biggest component of the NAV include SK Square's stake in SK Hynix (13.7 trillion won), ADT Caps (2.5 trillion won), and 11st (2.2 trillion won).Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is implied market cap of 17.5 trillion won, which would be 31% higher than the initial market cap (adjusted for split ratio) of 13.3 trillion won for the company. We have used EV/EBITDA ratio of 5x using our estimated EBITDA of 4.5 trillion won for the company in 2022.

SK Square & SK Telecom - Valuation Analysis Post Split

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

With ex-dividend date coming up in Korea on 29 December, we take a look at the dividend yield differential between the common and preferred shares and the discount on the preferred shares.We recommend buying preferred shares (and hedging with the common shares) with large dividend yield differentials versus the common shares and that are trading towards the bottom of their discount range versus the common. Apart from the dividend yield pickup we also expect to earn returns on the narrowing of the discount on the preferred shares.With short selling only permitted on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> constituents, shorts selling on the preferred shares is not possible since they are not eligible for index inclusion.We see attractive risk/reward for the preferred shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electro-mechanics-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:539:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-oil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1667:1" rel="noopener">S Oil Corp (010950 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>.

With ex-dividend date coming up in Korea on 29 December, we take a look at the dividend yield differential between the common and preferred shares and the discount on the preferred shares.We recommend buying preferred shares (and hedging with the common shares) with large dividend yield differentials versus the common shares and that are trading towards the bottom of their discount range versus the common. Apart from the dividend yield pickup we also expect to earn returns on the narrowing of the discount on the preferred shares.With short selling only permitted on Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituents, shorts selling on the preferred shares is not possible since they are not eligible for index inclusion.We see attractive risk/reward for the preferred shares on Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS), Amorepacific Group (002790 KS), S Oil Corp (010950 KS), Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Samsung SDI (006400 KS) and SK Innovation (096770 KS). 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Now we are positioning for a mild bounce into the month/quarter end to lean on shorts. October still expected to see another leg down. Bigger cycle date comes in near October 7-8th.Top shorts in Asia are Korea (due to undershoot on the back of SEC) and HSI (nearing a low) and Taiwan as the recent addition to our short conviction group.A50 flirting with big breakout resistance at 15,500 and will drive H share direction. A shares show potential to buck the region negative trend if the A50 clears 15,500 pivot.

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Now we are positioning for a mild bounce into the month/quarter end to lean on shorts. October still expected to see another leg down. Bigger cycle date comes in near October 7-8th.Top shorts in Asia are Korea (due to undershoot on the back of SEC) and HSI (nearing a low) and Taiwan as the recent addition to our short conviction group.A50 flirting with big breakout resistance at 15,500 and will drive H share direction. A shares show potential to buck the region negative trend if the A50 clears 15,500 pivot.

SPX Trendline Rejection/Asia Short Targets

Last evening post market close, KRX announced the Fast Entry of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 9 September.As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a> will be deleted from the index.Given the rapidly shrinking volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>, the impact of passive buying will be larger than what the headline numbers indicate.The deletions were expected, the stocks have sold off from their highs, some shorts have been built, and they will no longer be short sell eligible from 10 September. Expect the stocks to move lower and then for short covering to begin as borrow is recalled.Local institutions have been big buyers on both inclusions since listing. If part of this buying is for their passive tracking baskets, there could be less buying from now to implementation and the stocks may trade weak closer to rebalance day.With the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a> IPO back on the table, investors could look to switch out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> while the changing gaming rules and regulations in China could be a dampener for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>.

Last evening post market close, KRX announced the Fast Entry of KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close of trading on 9 September.As expected, Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS) will be deleted from the index.Given the rapidly shrinking volumes in KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS), the impact of passive buying will be larger than what the headline numbers indicate.The deletions were expected, the stocks have sold off from their highs, some shorts have been built, and they will no longer be short sell eligible from 10 September. Expect the stocks to move lower and then for short covering to begin as borrow is recalled.Local institutions have been big buyers on both inclusions since listing. If part of this buying is for their passive tracking baskets, there could be less buying from now to implementation and the stocks may trade weak closer to rebalance day.With the Kakao Pay (377300 KS) IPO back on the table, investors could look to switch out of KakaoBank (323410 KS) while the changing gaming rules and regulations in China could be a dampener for  Krafton Inc (259960 KS).

KOSPI200 September Index Rebalance: Krafton, Kakao Bank Fast Entry Confirmed

The KRX has announced the results of the September review of the BBIG indices and the changes will become effective after the close of trading on 9 September.These are the changes to the indices:<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Secondary Battery ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chunbo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27848:1" rel="noopener">Chunbo Co Ltd (278280 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>Bio ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-pharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12476:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS)</a> join the index, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seegene-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11483:1" rel="noopener">Seegene Inc (096530 KS)</a>. Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> in the top 3 stocks.</li>
<li>Internet ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kg-inicis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5234:1" rel="noopener">KG Inicis Co Ltd (035600 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rsupport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14783:1" rel="noopener">Rsupport Co Ltd (131370 KS)</a> </li>
<li>Game ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/devsisters-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14096:1" rel="noopener">Devsisters (194480 KS)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wemade-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9940:1" rel="noopener">Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neptune-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28826:1" rel="noopener">Neptune Company (217270 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>BBIG ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>KRX has broken its own rules (everyone does it, so join in!) by including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> even though the stock listed post the July-end cut off and there is no provision of Fast Entry in the index methodology.Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a> while the stocks with the largest outflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3970:1" rel="noopener">SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> is also a Fast Entry to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and there will be passive buying from those trackers as well.

The KRX has announced the results of the September review of the BBIG indices and the changes will become effective after the close of trading on 9 September.These are the changes to the indices:
Secondary Battery ETF: SK IE Technology (361610 KS) replaces Chunbo Co Ltd (278280 KS)

Bio ETF: SK Bioscience (302440 KS) and Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) join the index, replacing Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS) and Seegene Inc (096530 KS). Additionally, SK Bioscience (302440 KS) replaces SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) in the top 3 stocks.
Internet ETF: KG Inicis Co Ltd (035600 KS) replaces Rsupport Co Ltd (131370 KS) 
Game ETF:  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) and Devsisters (194480 KS) replace Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS) and Neptune Company (217270 KS)

BBIG ETF: SK Bioscience (302440 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) replace SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) and Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS).
KRX has broken its own rules (everyone does it, so join in!) by including  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) even though the stock listed post the July-end cut off and there is no provision of Fast Entry in the index methodology.Stocks with the largest inflows are SK Bioscience (302440 KS),  Krafton Inc (259960 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) while the stocks with the largest outflows are Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS), SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS), SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS). Krafton Inc (259960 KS) is also a Fast Entry to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and there will be passive buying from those trackers as well.

KRX BBIG Index Rebalance: Krafton, SK Bioscience, SK IE Tech Included (Among Others)

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

SK Square & SK Telecom - Valuation Analysis Post Split

In this insight, we provide our valuation assessment of SK Square and SK Telecom post split. Our base case valuations of SK Square and SK Telecom...

Douglas Kim

Korea Preferred Shares - Trade Ideas

With dividend ex-date coming up in just over 2 months, we highlight preferred shares that trade at a big discount to the common shares and at a...

Brian Freitas

SPX Trendline Rejection/Asia Short Targets

Monday's turn call to sell down longs and put on additional shorts panned out. Use a month/quarter end bounce to lean on shorts. October to see...

Thomas Schroeder

KOSPI200 September Index Rebalance: Krafton, Kakao Bank Fast Entry Confirmed

Krafton & KakaoBank will be added to the KOSPI200 index at the close on 9 Sep, replacing Lock&Lock and JW Pharma. The inclusions will be short sell...

Brian Freitas

KRX BBIG Index Rebalance: Krafton, SK Bioscience, SK IE Tech Included (Among Others)

Krafton has been added to the Game index, SK IE Tech added to the Battery index, SK Bioscience to the Bio index. Lots of flow on some names....

Brian Freitas

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