Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.</li>
<li>Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.</li>
<li>Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.</li>
</ul>


Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.
Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.
Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.


Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The annual index changes for the EURO STOXX 50 Index were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELs. Collectively, the ADDs could see index inflows of ~US$2.15bn while the DELs could experience index outflows of ~US$1.05bn.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations, historical performance of EURO STOXX 50 Rebal events, and recent performance of the current index change names.</li>
</ul>


The annual index changes for the EURO STOXX 50 Index were announced yesterday. 
There will be two ADDs and two DELs. Collectively, the ADDs could see index inflows of ~US$2.15bn while the DELs could experience index outflows of ~US$1.05bn.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations, historical performance of EURO STOXX 50 Rebal events, and recent performance of the current index change names.


EURO STOXX 50 Sep 22 Rebal: Massive Flows for Nordea Bank, Nokia, Kone, & Philips

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/euro-stoxx-50-quiddity-leaderboard-for-sep-22-eurozone-s-annual-big-impact-rebal-trades" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72736" rel="noopener">Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades</a>, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. </li>
<li>With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
In Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. 
With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.


EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

Netherlands

Koninklijke Philips NV is a health technology company focused on improving people's health across the health continuum from healthy living and prevention, to diagnosis, treatment, and home care. The Company offers products and services in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring and health informatics, as well as in consumer health and home care.

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Koninklijke Philips NV (PHIA NA)

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Q3 results of large U.S. medtech companies recorded procedure volume growth. However, macroeconomic headwinds are expected to prevail. Similar...

Tina Banerjee

EURO STOXX 50 Sep 22 Rebal: Massive Flows for Nordea Bank, Nokia, Kone, & Philips

The Long ADDs Short DELETEs trade seems interesting because the average impact on both size is significant and incoming momentum is strong.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

I expect 2 ADDs with ~US$1bn inflows each and 2 DELs with ~US$0.5bn in outflows each. While flows are significant, the LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs Trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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