Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>Residential real estate sector in India presents a decadal opportunity led by the shift to Organized from Unorganized. Our top pick in the space is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a>, a branded developer based out of Pune.</p>
<div id="annotable-executive_summary-1"><em>For detailed thematic insights into the changing landscape of residential real estate development in India, please refer to our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-fat-theme-organized-real-estate-developers-in-india-a-decadal-opportunity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56658" rel="noopener">A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity</a>.</em></div>
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Residential real estate sector in India presents a decadal opportunity led by the shift to Organized from Unorganized. Our top pick in the space is Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), a branded developer based out of Pune.
For detailed thematic insights into the changing landscape of residential real estate development in India, please refer to our insight: A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity.


Kolte Patil: A Fat Bet on Booming Residential Real Estate in India

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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil delivered on the optimistic expectations for Q4FY23 which led to a stellar close for FY23 with all-time-high pre-sales and robust deliveries.</li>
<li>Its flagship project, Life Republic, was at an inflection point as outlined in our original thesis. It contributed immensely in FY23 and is now all set for accelerated growth.</li>
<li>Despite high base of FY23, Kolte Patil is all set to post a strong FY24 with 25% pre-sales growth, led by new launches and strong sustenance sales.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil delivered on the optimistic expectations for Q4FY23 which led to a stellar close for FY23 with all-time-high pre-sales and robust deliveries.
Its flagship project, Life Republic, was at an inflection point as outlined in our original thesis. It contributed immensely in FY23 and is now all set for accelerated growth.
Despite high base of FY23, Kolte Patil is all set to post a strong FY24 with 25% pre-sales growth, led by new launches and strong sustenance sales.


Kolte Patil: Strong Q4FY23 In Line With The Optimistic Expectations

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY23 accounting earnings due to slight delay in arrival of OC for some projects. However, sales velocity and business development activity was robust.</li>
<li>Reported Q3FY23 earnings had weak margins due to revenue contribution from two low-margin projects.</li>
<li>Q4FY23 is on track to be strong both in terms of reported earnings (which depends on the timing of OC) and sales velocity.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported weaker than expected Q3FY23 accounting earnings due to slight delay in arrival of OC for some projects. However, sales velocity and business development activity was robust.
Reported Q3FY23 earnings had weak margins due to revenue contribution from two low-margin projects.
Q4FY23 is on track to be strong both in terms of reported earnings (which depends on the timing of OC) and sales velocity.


Kolte Patil: Q4FY23 Is All Set to Bring a Strong Close to FY23

<ul>
<li>Q2FY23 results were subdued due to delay in launch of a few new projects. </li>
<li>Lower proportion of sales from Mumbai led to decline in realization by 9% QoQ, however, this has quarterly variation and was also impacted by delay in new project launches.</li>
<li>The current quarter sales seem to be a temporary blip as most of the new projects are on track to launch in Q3FY23.</li>
</ul>


Q2FY23 results were subdued due to delay in launch of a few new projects. 
Lower proportion of sales from Mumbai led to decline in realization by 9% QoQ, however, this has quarterly variation and was also impacted by delay in new project launches.
The current quarter sales seem to be a temporary blip as most of the new projects are on track to launch in Q3FY23.


Kolte Patil: Temporary Blip in Q2FY23 Earnings; On Track for a Strong FY23

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a> is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.</li>
<li>While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.</li>
<li>Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our previous note, Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN) is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.
While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.
Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.


Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

India

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Kolte Patil: A Fat Bet on Booming Residential Real Estate in India

Business development activity, pace of execution and new launches are at all time high, leading to all-time high sales velocity. The stock has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Strong Q4FY23 In Line With The Optimistic Expectations

An investment in Kolte Patil has potential to more than double over the next 2-3Y. The firm has scaled up to the next level over the past couple of...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Q4FY23 Is All Set to Bring a Strong Close to FY23

An investment in Kolte Patil offers an upside potential of 50%. Kolte Patil is on track to post a strong FY23 and is guiding for another 25-30% pre...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Temporary Blip in Q2FY23 Earnings; On Track for a Strong FY23

KPDL has significant re-rating potential led by strong earnings for H2FY23. It is on track to post INR 180cr+ of PAT for FY23. At current...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

Kolte Patil is on track to post a strong FY23 in line with our prior note. It is expected to fire on cylinders - sales velocity, deliveries and new...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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