Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
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Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a muted Q4FY24 with sales value flattish at INR 743cr vs INR 746cr QoQ. However, overall FY24 ended strong with sales value growing at 25%+ YoY.</li>
<li>New project acquisition ended FY24 at INR 6000cr+, which was below the guidance of INR 8000cr. However, Kolte Patil remains upbeat and has guided to do INR 8000cr in FY25.</li>
<li>Even with lower than expected project acquisitions, Kolte Patil is well positioned with INR 25000cr worth of projects portfolio. It has guided for 25% CAGR in sales value through FY25-27.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a muted Q4FY24 with sales value flattish at INR 743cr vs INR 746cr QoQ. However, overall FY24 ended strong with sales value growing at 25%+ YoY.
New project acquisition ended FY24 at INR 6000cr+, which was below the guidance of INR 8000cr. However, Kolte Patil remains upbeat and has guided to do INR 8000cr in FY25.
Even with lower than expected project acquisitions, Kolte Patil is well positioned with INR 25000cr worth of projects portfolio. It has guided for 25% CAGR in sales value through FY25-27.


Kolte Patil: Medium-Term Outlook Remains Robust

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a> reported a decent Q3FY24 led by record sales value and improved realization. It is on track to achieve its guided INR 2800cr sales value for FY24.</li>
<li>Demand environment continues to be robust. Kolte Patil has guided for 25%+ sales value growth even for FY25. Realization also has room to improve and should aid the growth.</li>
<li>New business development activity is strong. Kolte Patil is in advances stages of discussion for projects with sales value worth INR 8000-10000cr, INR 3000-4000cr of which could close soon.</li>
</ul>



Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN) reported a decent Q3FY24 led by record sales value and improved realization. It is on track to achieve its guided INR 2800cr sales value for FY24.
Demand environment continues to be robust. Kolte Patil has guided for 25%+ sales value growth even for FY25. Realization also has room to improve and should aid the growth.
New business development activity is strong. Kolte Patil is in advances stages of discussion for projects with sales value worth INR 8000-10000cr, INR 3000-4000cr of which could close soon.


Kolte Patil: Robust Execution and Guidance

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a steady Q2FY24 led by continued momentum across sales, business development and deliveries.</li>
<li>Sales volume grew by 5%+ QoQ to 0.98mm sq ft in Q2FY24, led by strong sales in the Life Republic projects. This brings the H1FY24 total sales volume to 1.91mm. </li>
<li>With 4.94mm sq ft slated to be launched in H2FY24 vs 2.73mm launched in H1FY24, Kolte Patil is on track to achieve its FY24 sales guidance of 3.9mm+ sq ft.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a steady Q2FY24 led by continued momentum across sales, business development and deliveries.
Sales volume grew by 5%+ QoQ to 0.98mm sq ft in Q2FY24, led by strong sales in the Life Republic projects. This brings the H1FY24 total sales volume to 1.91mm. 
With 4.94mm sq ft slated to be launched in H2FY24 vs 2.73mm launched in H1FY24, Kolte Patil is on track to achieve its FY24 sales guidance of 3.9mm+ sq ft.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil (KPDL)</a> reported record sales velocity in Q1FY24 and is on track to achieve 25%+ sales value growth in FY24 as per its stated guidance.</li>
<li>Business development activity is also happening at a record pace and Kolte Patil is on track to beat its prior FY24 guidance of INR 8000cr by a wide margin.</li>
<li>Despite 80%+ rise in the share price since our coverage initiation 2Y ago, Kolte Patil still offers an upside potential of 25%+ IRR over a holding period of three years. </li>
</ul>



Kolte Patil (KPDL) reported record sales velocity in Q1FY24 and is on track to achieve 25%+ sales value growth in FY24 as per its stated guidance.
Business development activity is also happening at a record pace and Kolte Patil is on track to beat its prior FY24 guidance of INR 8000cr by a wide margin.
Despite 80%+ rise in the share price since our coverage initiation 2Y ago, Kolte Patil still offers an upside potential of 25%+ IRR over a holding period of three years. 


Kolte Patil: Strong Growth Momentum Continues from FY23

<div>
<p>Residential real estate sector in India presents a decadal opportunity led by the shift to Organized from Unorganized. Our top pick in the space is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a>, a branded developer based out of Pune.</p>
<div id="annotable-executive_summary-1"><em>For detailed thematic insights into the changing landscape of residential real estate development in India, please refer to our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-fat-theme-organized-real-estate-developers-in-india-a-decadal-opportunity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56658" rel="noopener">A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity</a>.</em></div>
</div>


Residential real estate sector in India presents a decadal opportunity led by the shift to Organized from Unorganized. Our top pick in the space is Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), a branded developer based out of Pune.
For detailed thematic insights into the changing landscape of residential real estate development in India, please refer to our insight: A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity.


Kolte Patil: A Fat Bet on Booming Residential Real Estate in India

India

Unitech Limited is a real estate development company.  The Company develops self-sustaining residential areas, commercial spaces, amusement parks, infrastructure development, thermal power plants, transmission lines, highways, flyovers, industrial facilities, steel plants, and overseas turnkey projects.

Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited is a real estate development company. The Company develops commercial and residential projects throughout India.

Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd manufactures color coated galvanized steel and aluminum coils/roofing sheets.  The Company supplies a range of coating specifications in polyester, plastisol, and other materials to suit individual customer requirements.

Nirlon Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company develops office parks.

OMAXE Limited is a real estate development and construction company focused on commercial and residential projects.

Peninsula Land Ltd. is a Real Estate Development company. The Company undertakes development of upscale residential communities.

Ashiana Housing Ltd. develops real estate in both the residential and commercial sectors.

Hubtown Limited offers construction and real estate development services. The Company develops, sells and leases commercial, residential, retail, and industrial properties.

Texmaco Infrastructure & Holdings Ltd manufactures a wide range of industrial machinery.  The Company's products include textile machinery, boilers, super heaters, economizers, pressure vessels, chimneys, bridges and structural equipment for chemicals, paper, cement and steel factories.  Texmaco also manufactures railway rolling stocks, railway equipment and sugar mill machinery.

Texmaco Infrastructure & Holdings (TXM IN)

Arihant Superstructures Ltd. is a full service construction company.

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. operates real estate businesses. The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, property management, and other services. Guangzhou R&F Properties also operates hotel management.

Far East Consortium International Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate.  The Company also operates hotels.

Far East Consortium International (35 HK)

YunNan Metropolitan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. operates in property development business. It also manufactures and markets beer and fruit wines, plastic film for agricultural use and grows chinaberry.

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial real estate properties.  The Company also renovates old buildings.  Shanghai New Huangpu provides food and entertainment services and trades building materials.

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd.  (600638 CH)

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. 

Wolong Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. develops residential and commercial real estate projects.

Wolong Real Estate Group Co, Ltd. (600173 CH)

Shining Building Business Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial buildings which are constructed by independent construction companies.

Jiangsu Phoenix Property Investment Co Ltd develops and manages residential and commercial real estate properties.

Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets cement products and other construction materials.  The Company also develops and constructs real estate properties.

Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd. (000965 CH)

Hong Fok Corporation Limited is an investment holding company whose principal activities consist of property investment, property development, property management, and investment trading.

Shimao Property Holdings Limited develops real estate projects in China.

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Kolte Patil: Medium-Term Outlook Remains Robust

Kolte Patil has had a strong FY24 and is on track to continue its 25%+ CAGR run-rate over the next 3 years. At the current valuation, it has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Robust Execution and Guidance

Kolte Patil is seeing strong growth led by robust execution and demand. It is on track to achieve its guided 25% sales growth in FY24 and has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: On Track for a Strong FY24

Kolte Patil reported a steady Q2FY24, suggesting that it is on track as per its FY24 guidance. At the current valuation, an investment in Kolte...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: Strong Growth Momentum Continues from FY23

Kolte Patil is hitting all the right notes in terms of new project launches, new project acquisitions and deliveries. This is leading to record...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Kolte Patil: A Fat Bet on Booming Residential Real Estate in India

Business development activity, pace of execution and new launches are at all time high, leading to all-time high sales velocity. The stock has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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