'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

eRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions announcements as the 420 companies with February, May, August and November year-ends start to report. Initially, we shall cover all companies irrespective of market capitalisation, to highlight the financial impact of COVID-19  on specific Sectors and Peer Groups.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/848/original/2020-06-29_05-02-16.png?1593374573" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142848"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR LEADS - The Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator of Business Conditions is suggesting that earnings and revisions (as represented above by our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score) have some significant downside, perhaps closer to the low of 2009. The degree to which the market has already discounted the recovery of 2021 is moot; however, the current level of confidence is about to be put to the test, as was evident from Friday's announcements.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/853/original/2020-06-29_05-11-32.png?1593375116" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142853"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Tokyo Metropolitan Government</div>FAR FROM NORMAL - As a reminder that Tokyo's levels of social activity have yet to recover -passenger numbers on Toei subway lines are still 30% below January levels at peak office-worker commuting times.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/142/854/original/2020-06-29_05-17-39.png?1593375481" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="142854"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>GRAPHIC DETAIL - In an attempt to highlight absolute and relative company-specific trends, we have added some additional graphic material in the DETAIL section below. As always, comments and feedback are welcome.<hr>DAILY STATS14 Quarterly Results<ul>
<li>
Results Score: 12 Negative / 2 Positive</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change:-5.0</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -16% Quarter YoY / -5% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.2ppt</li>
</ul><hr>7 Annual 6 Interim Forecasts Revisions<ul>
<li>
Forecast Revision Score: 6 Positive / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7</li>
</ul>

eRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions announcements as the 420 companies with February, May, August and November year-ends start to report. Initially, we shall cover all companies irrespective of market capitalisation, to highlight the financial impact of COVID-19  on specific Sectors and Peer Groups.Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR LEADS - The Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator of Business Conditions is suggesting that earnings and revisions (as represented above by our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score) have some significant downside, perhaps closer to the low of 2009. The degree to which the market has already discounted the recovery of 2021 is moot; however, the current level of confidence is about to be put to the test, as was evident from Friday's announcements.Source • Tokyo Metropolitan GovernmentFAR FROM NORMAL - As a reminder that Tokyo's levels of social activity have yet to recover -passenger numbers on Toei subway lines are still 30% below January levels at peak office-worker commuting times.Source • Japan AnalyticsGRAPHIC DETAIL - In an attempt to highlight absolute and relative company-specific trends, we have added some additional graphic material in the DETAIL section below. As always, comments and feedback are welcome.DAILY STATS14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 12 Negative / 2 Positive

Average Results Score Change:-5.0

Average % Change in Revenue: -16% Quarter YoY / -5% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.2ppt
7 Annual 6 Interim Forecasts Revisions

Forecast Revision Score: 6 Positive / 7 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

Japan

Kojima Iron Works Co., Ltd. manufactures pressing machines including deep drawing, high-speed hydraulic stamping, injection, molding, chassis forming, and die-spotting presses.  The Company also produces non-press machinery such as expanders, shrinkers, rotary roll formers, and blank preparation modules.

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Kojima Iron Works (6112 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

eRESULTS & REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES - After a month's gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan's results, forecasts and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

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