Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.</li>
<li>ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023</li>
<li>ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.
ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023
ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?


ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.</p></li><li>I think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mks-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5970" rel="noopener">Mks Instruments (MKSI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultra-clean-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19849" rel="noopener">Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichor-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26449" rel="noopener">Ichor Holdings (ICHR US)</a> are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.</li><li>The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.</li></ul>

Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.I think Mks Instruments (MKSI US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US), and Ichor Holdings (ICHR US) are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

<ul>
<li>Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.</li>
<li>I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.</li>
<li>However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial</li>
</ul>


Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company.
I continue to like automotive, specifically semiconductors.
However, despite sequentially better results, we are seeing continued weakness in automotive and meaningful weakness in Industrial


Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

United States

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

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KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)

ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, + 7.5% QoQ. Q124 guided at €5.25 billion, - 27% QoQ. Reiterated '24 guidance flat YoY. Share surge >8% overnight....

William Keating

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

Another week of earnings. I will start with a summary and then go into specific bits from each company. I continue to like automotive,...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

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