Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Our expectations for Micron's upcoming earnings call are very positive for four reasons:</p><ul>
<li>DRAM and NAND pricing is up</li>
<li>Demand has been solid for the whole first half, with no signs of softening</li>
<li>The company is shifting its mix to higher-margin products</li>
<li>Costs are being reduced through process leadership</li>
</ul>

Our expectations for Micron's upcoming earnings call are very positive for four reasons:
DRAM and NAND pricing is up
Demand has been solid for the whole first half, with no signs of softening
The company is shifting its mix to higher-margin products
Costs are being reduced through process leadership


What to Expect from the June 30 Micron Earnings Call

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. </p><p>On 7 June in the morning, Toshiba <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> how it would allocate that ¥150 billion.</p><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Toshiba would pay a <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_2.pdf?_ga=2.28905850.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">¥50 billion dividend</a> (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. Toshiba fell ¥125/share today (29 June) closing at ¥4765 as that dividend went ex-.</li>
<li>Toshiba would <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy back</a> up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.</li>
</ul>
<p>Today after the close, Toshiba announced a buyback of up to ¥100 billion to be executed via ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow morning from 8:00-8:45 JST for up to 20,986,300 shares.</p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/978/original/Screenshot+2021-06-29+at+5.31.02+PM.png?1624959123" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215978"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">source: Toshiba <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/jp/news/20210629_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> (Japanese)</div></section><p>This is not dissimilar to the explanation provided in the third ToSTNeT-3 transaction Toshiba conducted in Q4 2018. This one, is however, quite a bit smaller than that one was. </p>
<p>It is worth thinking about here. While Toshiba may not intend this to be a prisoner's dilemma situation, it resembles one. </p>
<p>That deserves more explanation and discussion, below.</p></section><p></p>
</div>

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. On 7 June in the morning, Toshiba announced how it would allocate that ¥150 billion.

Toshiba would pay a ¥50 billion dividend (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. Toshiba fell ¥125/share today (29 June) closing at ¥4765 as that dividend went ex-.
Toshiba would buy back up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.

Today after the close, Toshiba announced a buyback of up to ¥100 billion to be executed via ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow morning from 8:00-8:45 JST for up to 20,986,300 shares.
source: Toshiba announcement (Japanese)This is not dissimilar to the explanation provided in the third ToSTNeT-3 transaction Toshiba conducted in Q4 2018. This one, is however, quite a bit smaller than that one was. 
It is worth thinking about here. While Toshiba may not intend this to be a prisoner's dilemma situation, it resembles one. 
That deserves more explanation and discussion, below.


Toshiba ToSTNeT-3 Buyback For All The Marbles, and 🐓s

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>WSTS has forecast for both 2021 and 2022 semiconductor revenues to break records.  While three years of strong back-to-back revenue growth has occurred in the past, there are reasons, which we explain here, to take this forecast with a good measure of skepticism.</p>

WSTS has forecast for both 2021 and 2022 semiconductor revenues to break records.  While three years of strong back-to-back revenue growth has occurred in the past, there are reasons, which we explain here, to take this forecast with a good measure of skepticism.

WSTS Forecast: Record Semiconductor Revenues in Both 2021 & 2022

<p>On June 9 the SIA and WSTS reported April semiconductor revenues of $48.1 billion, which sets year-to-date revenue growth at 16.8%.  This Insight examines that figure in light of current shortages and DRAM's recent price decline.</p>

On June 9 the SIA and WSTS reported April semiconductor revenues of $48.1 billion, which sets year-to-date revenue growth at 16.8%.  This Insight examines that figure in light of current shortages and DRAM's recent price decline.

April Semiconductor Sales Released - YTD Growth 16.8%

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. </p><p>It is now early June and this morning Toshiba has <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> how it will allocate the ¥150 billion.</p><ul>
<li>Toshiba will pay a <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_2.pdf?_ga=2.28905850.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">¥50 billion dividend</a> (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. The company has updated its annual dividend forecast for the year to be ¥110/share, including a ¥40/share dividend for both first half and second half.</li>
<li>Toshiba will <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/news/20210607_1.pdf?_ga=2.28792570.77540220.1623036254-478027331.1623036254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy back</a> up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.</li>
</ul><p>How to play this is a different story. More below.</p>

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced results in mid-May along with a somewhat surprising plan to "return ¥150bn to shareholders", with method to be specified later - in early June. It is now early June and this morning Toshiba has announced how it will allocate the ¥150 billion.
Toshiba will pay a ¥50 billion dividend (¥110/share) to shareholders of record on 30 June 2021. The company has updated its annual dividend forecast for the year to be ¥110/share, including a ¥40/share dividend for both first half and second half.
Toshiba will buy back up to 27mm shares spending up to ¥100 billion in a buyback using ToSTNeT-3 and open-market buybacks, with the program lasting until the end of calendar 2021.
How to play this is a different story. More below.

Toshiba Shareholder Return - A Little of This, A Little of That, But Sticky and Accretive

Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)

What to Expect from the June 30 Micron Earnings Call

Micron Technology is poised to disclose strong growth and earnings in tomorrow's quarterly call. This Smartkarma Insight provides four reasons why.

Jim Handy

Toshiba ToSTNeT-3 Buyback For All The Marbles, and 🐓s

Toshiba has launched a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for the entire size of its planned buyback. If it gets the stock, that's it. If not, it...

Travis Lundy

WSTS Forecast: Record Semiconductor Revenues in Both 2021 & 2022

The semiconductor industry's statistics body, WSTS, released a very bullish Spring forecast, predicting revenues to break records in both 2021 and...

Jim Handy

April Semiconductor Sales Released - YTD Growth 16.8%

April Semiconductor revenues are 21.7% higher than last April, resulting in 16.8% year-to-date growth. Is this sustainable? This Insight looks at...

Jim Handy

Toshiba Shareholder Return - A Little of This, A Little of That, But Sticky and Accretive

Toshiba announces their Shareholder Return Allocation. One-third to a special div, two-thirds to buybacks. The buybacks may take place early, but...

Travis Lundy

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