'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure><p>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a></p>
</div><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</strong></p></blockquote><p><strong>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED?</strong> - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 <em>Covid-19 recession</em>. We will focus on three factors - the<strong> Audit Score</strong>, the <strong>Altman Z-Score</strong> and <strong>Cumulative Cash Flows</strong> - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.</p><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE</strong> - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an '<strong>Audit Score'</strong>. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.   </p>


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> continued to hover around the USD6,500 mark this week despite some negative headlines including the USD59m hack in the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Zaif, Bitcoin developers discovering a major big in the software and reports on increased mining malware. </li>
<li>Ripple tripled its value during this week to edge out on Ethereum as the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/626/original/XRP.PNG?1537559289" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64626"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Coinmarketcap</div>
<ul>
<li>Regulatory crackdown against cryptocurrency continued with lawmakers in the UK, the US (NY) and China releasing several reports/announcements highlighting the risks in investing in cryptocurrencies. </li>
<li>Listed Japanese and South Korean companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13003" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13003:1">Fisco Ltd (3807 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18507" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18507:1">Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/509" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:509:1">Samsung Sds (018260 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1113" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1113:1">LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS)</a> expanded their reach in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space this week. </li>
<li>Fidelity Investments aims to release cryptocurrency products by year end. </li>
</ul>



Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) continued to hover around the USD6,500 mark this week despite some negative headlines including the USD59m hack in the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Zaif, Bitcoin developers discovering a major big in the software and reports on increased mining malware. 
Ripple tripled its value during this week to edge out on Ethereum as the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. 


Source: Coinmarketcap

Regulatory crackdown against cryptocurrency continued with lawmakers in the UK, the US (NY) and China releasing several reports/announcements highlighting the risks in investing in cryptocurrencies. 
Listed Japanese and South Korean companies Fisco Ltd (3807 JP), Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP), Samsung Sds (018260 KS) and LG Uplus Corp (032640 KS) expanded their reach in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space this week. 
Fidelity Investments aims to release cryptocurrency products by year end. 


This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: More Hacking! More Crackdown!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations for the overall market to identify which sectors and companies are currently trending up in popularity and which are trending down.</p><h2>Positive Side</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/022/original/2.png?1490213989" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="23022"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>As you can see from the chart above the Energy Minerals (Only 7 names in sector), Finance and Consumer Durables Sectors had the highest % of upgrades relative to total recommendations over…</p>

We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations for the overall market to identify which sectors and companies are currently trending up in popularity and which are trending down.Positive SideSource: Custom ProductsAs you can see from the chart above the Energy Minerals (Only 7 names in sector), Finance and Consumer Durables Sectors had the highest % of upgrades relative to total recommendations over…

Most Popular and Unpopular Japanese Sectors over Last 2 Weeks....

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

<p>Aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are bullish about sales prospects in Asia, but is it a bit too early to write off China's aerospace industry, which, despite technical shortcomings, has received strong state backing?</p>

Aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are bullish about sales prospects in Asia, but is it a bit too early to write off China's aerospace industry, which, despite technical shortcomings, has received strong state backing?

Clouds Ahead for Foreign Aircraft Sales in China?

Japan

Kintetsu Group Holdings provides passenger rail, bus, taxi, and freight truck transportation services in the Kinki region including Osaka, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures.  The Company also offers ground, air, and marine logistics services and operates department stores and real estate business.

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Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: More Hacking! More Crackdown!

Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) continued to hover around the USD6,500 mark this week despite some negative headlines including the USD59m hack in the...

Supun Walpola

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Most Popular and Unpopular Japanese Sectors over Last 2 Weeks....

We have decided to split our coverage of Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades into Japan only and Asia -ex Japan. We track changes in recommendations...

Custom Products Group

Clouds Ahead for Foreign Aircraft Sales in China?

Aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are bullish about sales prospects in Asia, but is it a bit too early to write off China's aerospace...

Bixmoor

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52-week Range

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