Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Western Superconducting Techno / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

China

Kingnet Network Co. Ltd. is a technology company involved in the development of social, browser, online games and mobile gaming.

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Kingnet Network (002517 CH)

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

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