Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

In the month of January 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced its move to TSE1 triggering what could potentially be one of the largest TOPIX Inclusion events in recent memory. The stock could see its TOPIX Inclusion take place at the end of February, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan Inc (4443 JP)</a> - another larger-than-usual candidate - and two other super-high-impact names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bull-dog-sauce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16235:1" rel="noopener">Bull Dog Sauce (2804 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>. There is plenty to look forward to. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 6 "Live" event stocks (including the names mentioned above) which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of February 2021 and 14 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 and January 2021 (on 28 January 2021).Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future.

In the month of January 2021, one of the most anticipated TOPIX Inclusion candidates, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced its move to TSE1 triggering what could potentially be one of the largest TOPIX Inclusion events in recent memory. The stock could see its TOPIX Inclusion take place at the end of February, along with Sansan Inc (4443 JP) - another larger-than-usual candidate - and two other super-high-impact names Bull Dog Sauce (2804 JP) and Alps Logistics (9055 JP). There is plenty to look forward to. In this insight, I have provided performance updates for 6 "Live" event stocks (including the names mentioned above) which are expected to have Inclusion Events at the end of February 2021 and 14 "Post" event stocks that completed their Inclusion Events at the end of December 2020 and January 2021 (on 28 January 2021).Furthermore, I have also highlighted some interesting Pre-event situations involving stocks that are likely to become TSE1-promotion candidates in the near future. 

Quantitative Analysis

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-4931-jp-shinnihonseiyaku" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku</a> where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. <hr><div class="content-remarks">This insight is an update to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-who-is-ready" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41091" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?</a>. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. </div>

There are currently ~1,500 stocks listed in the Mothers, JASDAQ, and Second Sections of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As time passes, some of these stocks will "graduate" to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE1), triggering inclusion into the TOPIX Index causing passive funds tracking TOPIX to buy them on an inclusion event. This presents various trading opportunities in several phases of this event timeline.  Being able to identify such candidates at a "Pre-event" phase (before the TSE reassignment is confirmed) can unlock great value for speculative bets as we recently witnessed in the case of TOPIX Inclusion (4931 JP): Shinnihonseiyaku where the stock gained 90%+ in the ~5 months leading to the TSE1-reassignment announcement. However, in July 2020, TSE introduced more stringent new Section Transfer Requirements and TSE1 Listing Criteria adding a new layer of complexity to this prediction process, especially during the period of transition from the old rules to the new rules. In this insight, we take a look at how some of the potential TSE1 candidates will fare against these New Section Transfer Requirements and evaluate their attractiveness at the Pre-event phase. This insight is an update to TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Who Is Ready?. Please refer to that insight for more information on the approach used in the below analysis. Note that some assumptions used in the analysis have changed since then. 

TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0

On Friday after market-close, Japanese optical films manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiwa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31047:1" rel="noopener">Keiwa (4251 JP)</a> announced (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4251/tdnet/1909509/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) they had received approval to move from the Second Section to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 17th December 2020. KEIWA Incorporated manufactures optical sheets and functional products in Japan. Their light diffusion sheets are used in the backlight units of liquid crystal displays of smartphones. The company also manufacturers other products such as industrial packaging materials, industrial processing papers, and clean energy materials. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. In conjunction with the TSE1 reassignment announcement, the company has also announced (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4251/tdnet/1909508/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) a sale of shares for a total quantity of 1,600,000 shares including the over-allotment portion.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event.

On Friday after market-close, Japanese optical films manufacturer Keiwa (4251 JP) announced (J-only) they had received approval to move from the Second Section to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 17th December 2020. KEIWA Incorporated manufactures optical sheets and functional products in Japan. Their light diffusion sheets are used in the backlight units of liquid crystal displays of smartphones. The company also manufacturers other products such as industrial packaging materials, industrial processing papers, and clean energy materials. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. In conjunction with the TSE1 reassignment announcement, the company has also announced (J-only) a sale of shares for a total quantity of 1,600,000 shares including the over-allotment portion.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. 

TOPIX Inclusion (4251 JP): KEIWA Incorporated

Japan

KEIWA Incorporated manufactures and distributes optical films and sheets. The Company produces light diffusion sheets, polarization control films, and other products. KEIWA also produces paper products including moisture proof paper, engineering paper, and other products.

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KEIWA (4251 JP)

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