Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The telecom sector seems like a notable winner with a change in political leadership.  Pushing through mobile price reductions was one of the few policy successes for the Suga administration and record low approval ratings meant a revival of the issues was never entirely off the table. New leadership without historical ties to the regulator is an improvement. We remain positive on Japanese telecoms with Buy ratings for NTT, KDDI and Softbank.   </p>

The telecom sector seems like a notable winner with a change in political leadership.  Pushing through mobile price reductions was one of the few policy successes for the Suga administration and record low approval ratings meant a revival of the issues was never entirely off the table. New leadership without historical ties to the regulator is an improvement. We remain positive on Japanese telecoms with Buy ratings for NTT, KDDI and Softbank.   

Japan Telecoms - Surprise Resignation of the Prime Minister Should Ease Regulatory Pressure

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Rakuten Q2 21 results were mixed with better revenue as core businesses did well but steeper losses as mobile spending grew. The company has not changed broad guidance that peak losses will come in FY21 but roaming costs appear to be a larger issue than we thought with an impact on both margins and the timing of new user acquisition. That makes slippage in network deployment targets slightly more problematic although there should also be some offset from good results in eCommerce which grew YoY despite lapping the very strong lockdown quarter.</p>

Rakuten Q2 21 results were mixed with better revenue as core businesses did well but steeper losses as mobile spending grew. The company has not changed broad guidance that peak losses will come in FY21 but roaming costs appear to be a larger issue than we thought with an impact on both margins and the timing of new user acquisition. That makes slippage in network deployment targets slightly more problematic although there should also be some offset from good results in eCommerce which grew YoY despite lapping the very strong lockdown quarter.

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Roaming Costs Have Become a Big Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<p>With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the <em>seventh</em> large buyback in five years. </p><p>The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. </p><p>One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.</p><ol>
<li>In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and </li>
<li>This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. </li>
</ol><p>I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.</p><p>Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.</p><p>More below the fold.</p>

With its Q1 earnings release on Friday 6 August, NTT also announced a buyback. This is the seventh large buyback in five years. The buyback programs for on-market buyback announced from 2016-2019 were ¥150bn in size, uniformly. Since then, the two on-market buybacks have been ¥250bn. One might have expected this one to be ¥150-200bn but at ¥250bn it is likely at the high end of expectations for three reasons.
In order to buy back ¥300bn next time from the government, it needs to buy back ¥250bn from the market this time. 
This larger buyback represents continued effort at offsetting the dilution from the ¥200bn share sale to Toyota in March 2020, and 
This larger buyback represents NTT using the additional earnings power of NTT Docomo. NTT used to buy back shares from the market and from NTT, then NTT would take that cash and capital and buy back its own shares. Now NTT Docomo doesn't have to spend any money on buybacks from minority shareholders. All of its cash can go to the parent NTT. NTT therefore has more to spend on buybacks. Given several of the recent NTT Docomo buybacks were on the order of ¥300bn, the one-third of that amount which did not accrue to NTT now does. So now it accrues to NTT shareholders. 
I expect a buyback size of ¥250-300bn to be the new standard.Of course, this lets us take a look at NTT vs its competitors KDDI and Softbank Corp yet again, and compare the impact on the market of the various buyback programs in place.More below the fold.

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>. Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) while there was short covering on Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP). Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and SK Telecom (017670 KS) while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), LG Electronics (066570 KS), Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT) while shorts covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT), Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) and TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT).

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

<p>KDDI posted mixed Q1 results with revenue modestly below expectations but profitability higher. Recent operational trends remain unchanged as demonstrated by 18% growth in new DX business sales but a 3% decline in core mobile communication sales.  Profitability growth stands out especially as KDDI did that whilst lapping the toughest comps for FY20 when emergency coronavirus measures kept marketing spend down. With financial results on track to meet FY21 expectations, we remain at Buy.</p>

KDDI posted mixed Q1 results with revenue modestly below expectations but profitability higher. Recent operational trends remain unchanged as demonstrated by 18% growth in new DX business sales but a 3% decline in core mobile communication sales.  Profitability growth stands out especially as KDDI did that whilst lapping the toughest comps for FY20 when emergency coronavirus measures kept marketing spend down. With financial results on track to meet FY21 expectations, we remain at Buy.

KDDI (Buy): Q1 21 Results – Weak Consumer Offset by Solid Corporate Sales

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Japan Telecoms - Surprise Resignation of the Prime Minister Should Ease Regulatory Pressure

The telecom sector wins with political change. Mobile price cuts were one of the few policy successes for this PM and record low approval meant a...

Kirk Boodry

Rakuten (Neutral) - Q2 21 Results Reaction: Roaming Costs Have Become a Big Deal

Rakuten posted solid eCommerce/Fintech results but these are overshadowed by mobile operating losses. The good news is peak losses should fall in...

Kirk Boodry

NTT Buybacks Continue - Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger

NTT Announces good earnings and a big buyback. Buybacks are normal but this buyback is the new normal, delivering NTT Docomo's earnings to NTT...

Travis Lundy

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

KDDI (Buy): Q1 21 Results – Weak Consumer Offset by Solid Corporate Sales

Q1 21 results were mixed with lower revenue but a profit beat. Weakness in retail mobile is more than offset by revenue in other areas including...

Kirk Boodry

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