Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KDDI reported earnings today, offering a near meaningless March 2022 results presentation slide deck, and an only slightly more meaningful new Mid-Term Plan.</li>
<li>The only clarity provided is on the bit which makes up about a third of future OP as the two-thirds (mobile telephony ARPU-related revenues) will see considerable pain this year. </li>
<li>The buyback is nice, but KDDI is no longer cheap, and may have relative upside only against Softbank Corp. </li>
</ul>


KDDI reported earnings today, offering a near meaningless March 2022 results presentation slide deck, and an only slightly more meaningful new Mid-Term Plan.
The only clarity provided is on the bit which makes up about a third of future OP as the two-thirds (mobile telephony ARPU-related revenues) will see considerable pain this year. 
The buyback is nice, but KDDI is no longer cheap, and may have relative upside only against Softbank Corp. 


KDDI (9433) Results OK, Forecasts OK, Buyback Even Better, But No Longer Cheap

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Guidance for modest growth in FY22 operating income is broadly in line with expectations and reassuring after a range of potential outcomes in reports from NTT and Softbank  </li>
<li>The company has issued a mid-term plan with a positive message on growth from new businesses and in-line guidance for capex/shareholder returns but a lack of FY24 finanical targets</li>
<li>On balance, the message is positive as a stable business and rising shareholder returns makes KDDI an attractive option in a frothy market</li>
</ul>


Guidance for modest growth in FY22 operating income is broadly in line with expectations and reassuring after a range of potential outcomes in reports from NTT and Softbank  
The company has issued a mid-term plan with a positive message on growth from new businesses and in-line guidance for capex/shareholder returns but a lack of FY24 finanical targets
On balance, the message is positive as a stable business and rising shareholder returns makes KDDI an attractive option in a frothy market


KDDI (Buy) Q4 21 Results Reaction: FY22 Profits Steady and Wide-Ranging Mid-Term Plan

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The three Japanese telecoms reported earnings this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> was disappointing (and slightly confusing). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> was much of a muchness.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>  looked the best, and announced the largest buyback - ¥400bn or 3%. But it comes from a government sale, not the market. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the company is doing what it promised and executing on its promise. And despite the "bullishness" in the revenue forecast, earnings forecasts to March 2023 look conservative.</li>
</ul>


The three Japanese telecoms reported earnings this week. Softbank Corp (9434 JP) was disappointing (and slightly confusing). KDDI Corp (9433 JP) was much of a muchness.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)  looked the best, and announced the largest buyback - ¥400bn or 3%. But it comes from a government sale, not the market. 
Nevertheless, the company is doing what it promised and executing on its promise. And despite the "bullishness" in the revenue forecast, earnings forecasts to March 2023 look conservative.


NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go

<ul>
<li>Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but it needs a boost from valuation gains from PayPay to get there</li>
<li>Operationally, it is forecasting a 11% EBITDA decline driven by mobile revenue erosion and higher marketing expense with the lack of a growth contribution from Z Holdings apparent</li>
<li>The good news is the dividend is unchanged.  We expect a better story from NTT and KDDI later in the week but stable returns provide support</li>
</ul>


Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but it needs a boost from valuation gains from PayPay to get there
Operationally, it is forecasting a 11% EBITDA decline driven by mobile revenue erosion and higher marketing expense with the lack of a growth contribution from Z Holdings apparent
The good news is the dividend is unchanged.  We expect a better story from NTT and KDDI later in the week but stable returns provide support


Softbank Corp Q4 21 Results Reaction: Behind the Headlines, Disappointing Guidance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

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Softbank Corp Q4 21 Results Reaction: Behind the Headlines, Disappointing Guidance

Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but 11% EBITDA erosion before the impact of one...

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MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

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