Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Flows from the ETFs/index funds serve as a minimal flow for rebalancing trading at the close on June 9. The total AUM is ₩18.9T: ETFs ₩15.0T and index funds ₩3.9T.</li>
<li>There are only three trading days left until the rebalancing trading. At this point, a setup aimed at the NPS/Insurance's preemptive trading seems a bit off, timing-wise.</li>
<li>It seems more appropriate at this point to design a day basket-trading based on the minimal flow size on the day of rebalancing trading, June 9.</li>
</ul>


Flows from the ETFs/index funds serve as a minimal flow for rebalancing trading at the close on June 9. The total AUM is ₩18.9T: ETFs ₩15.0T and index funds ₩3.9T.
There are only three trading days left until the rebalancing trading. At this point, a setup aimed at the NPS/Insurance's preemptive trading seems a bit off, timing-wise.
It seems more appropriate at this point to design a day basket-trading based on the minimal flow size on the day of rebalancing trading, June 9.


KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Minimal Flow at the Close on June 9 For Day Basket-Trading

<ul>
<li>Is Kakao Pay showing an upward trend after hitting bottom? It doesn't seem to me yet. The NPS is the only buyer who has recently driven the share price up.</li>
<li>I'd consider betting on the decline in Kakao Pay's share price once this passive flow is completed. An ideal entry point? I would avoid the June 9 rebalancing trading day.</li>
<li>However, it is unlikely that this passive flow factor will spill over after June 9. So I'd consider building up a short position from late June 9 towards the close.</li>
</ul>


Is Kakao Pay showing an upward trend after hitting bottom? It doesn't seem to me yet. The NPS is the only buyer who has recently driven the share price up.
I'd consider betting on the decline in Kakao Pay's share price once this passive flow is completed. An ideal entry point? I would avoid the June 9 rebalancing trading day.
However, it is unlikely that this passive flow factor will spill over after June 9. So I'd consider building up a short position from late June 9 towards the close.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity</li>
<li>We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list</li>
</ul>


Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity
We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it
Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list


Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.</li>
<li>On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.
On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.


ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

<ul>
<li>We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).</li>
<li>It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.</li>
<li>Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.</li>
</ul>


We should focus on the weight changes of the existing constituents. For this, two names really stand out: Kakao Pay (+0.44x ADTV) and LG Corp (+0.37x ADTV).
It is because Kakao Pay and LG Corp will undergo an increase in their float rate in the KOSPI 200 rebalancing, and these up-weights will also affect this sector index.
Their combined inflow size (KOSPI 200 &amp; KOSPI 200 IT) will be 1.41x and 1.16x ADTVs. This will be the most substantial, except for Kakao Bank and the new additions.


KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index Rebalancing Flow: Watch Kakao Pay & LG Corp

South Korea

Kakao Pay Corp. operates financial businesses. The Company provides online payment, currency encryption, and other services. Kakao Pay conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Kakaopay (377300 KS)

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Minimal Flow at the Close on June 9 For Day Basket-Trading

This post gathers the combined AUM of the local ETFs/index funds mirroring the KOSPI 200 and estimates the minimal passive flow on the rebalancing...

Sanghyun Park

Shorting Entry Point Coming on Kakao Pay

This post investigates the driving force behind Kakao Pay's recent price surge (+25%) and discusses why this should be a shorting entry point.

Sanghyun Park

Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

In payments, we stick with our longs on Mastercard for its quality, PagSeguro and Nexi for value; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts, adding it to...

Victor Galliano

ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index Rebalancing Flow: Watch Kakao Pay & LG Corp

This post highlights the two names that will see the most substantial passive inflow on the rebalancing trading day, June 9, for the KOSPI 200 IT...

Sanghyun Park

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