Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics</li>
<li>There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday </li>
<li>For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it</li>
</ul>


Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics
There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday 
For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it


China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) </li>
<li>But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)</li>
<li>This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) 
But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)
This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data


China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

<ul>
<li>We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave</li>
<li>Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?</li>
<li>A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales</li>
</ul>


We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?
A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales


China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

China

Zhong An Group Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company builds shopping malls, office buildings, hotels, serviced apartments, and other buildings. Zhong An Group markets its products throughout China.

Crown International Corp Limited engages in the businesses of hotel investment and operation and property investment.

Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets high-rise residential buildings, low-rise apartments, villas, commercial facilities, office buildings, and other related areas. Zhongliang Holdings Group provides property management services.

Zhenro Properties Group Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company builds and markets residential properties, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Zhenro Properties Group also provides property management services. Zhenro Properties Group serves customers in China.

E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Limited provides real estate services. The Company offers primary real estate agency, big data and consulting, secondary brokerage platform, and other services. E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings provides services in Hong Kong.

FLJ Group Limited provides real estate services. The Company offers apartment on rental basis. FLJ Group serves customers in China.

China Electronics Optics Valley Union Holding Company Limited develops and operates commercial business parks. The Company upgrades, restructures, develops and operates commercial business properties throughout China.

Beijing North Star Company Limited develops, leases, and invests in properties. The Company operates shopping centers, hotels, restaurants, and recreation businesses.  The Company also provides property management.

Huafa Property Services Group Company Limited operates as a property management company. The Company offers property and facility management, design and engineering consulting, brand introduction, hotel advisory, events, and exhibition services. Huafa Property Services Group serves clients in Hong Kong and China.

A-Living Smart City Services Co., Ltd. offers property management services. The Company provides hydropower maintenance, parking management, home cleaning, and other services. A-Living Smart City Services also engages in interior decoration works, landscaping works, and others.

Newtime Infrastructure Ltd. produces movies.

Lai Sun Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also operates hotels and restaurants.

Noble Development Public Company Limited develops property ranging from single detached houses to low-rise and high-rise condominiums.  The Company also provides housing construction and project management services.

Tateru, Inc. offers real estate brokerage services. The Company mainly operates apartment management platforms and offers related leasing services. Tateru provides services in Japan.

PT Indonesia Prima Property Tbk develops and sells apartments, houses, and land. The Company also owns and leases office buildings, shopping malls, apartments, and hotels.

SLB Development Ltd. operates as a property development company. The Company develops industrial, commercial, and retail properties.

Nirvana Development Public Company Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops high-rise and low-rise residential projects, as well as manufactures and distributes pile, beam, concrete slap and fence, and aluminum doors and windows. Nirvana Development serves customers in Thailand.

Polaris Capital PCL develops real estate. The Company develops single family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and resorts.

Sietel Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in industrial and commercial real estate, provides financed and leased facilities, and plant and management services to its controlled entities.  The Company also develops hot water heaters and does vehicle body manufacturing for the commercial automobile industry.

Great Wall Pan Asia Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns a diversified portfolio of real estate assets in Hong Kong.

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

Weekly (Sep 22-28) curated summaries of the selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property: First signs of the impact of policy easing in some cities where new home sales jumped in the week to Sep 24, though in aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

A weekly curated selection and summaries of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

​China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

Weekly (Sep 22-28) curated summaries of the selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property: First signs of the impact of policy easing in some cities where new home sales jumped in the week to Sep 24, though in aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

A weekly curated selection and summaries of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...