Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
USD Bond Payments Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made another set of 11th hour interest payments of USD 148 mn to bondholders on Wednesday, November 10, 2021;</li>
<li>
Trial Balloon Not a Panacea: Mainland Chinese authorities hinted a readiness to loosen their grip on the issuance of CNY-denominated bonds by real estate companies; and</li>
<li>
Watch Your Bank Risk: Evergrande has already been in contact with lenders for loan extensions. Main bank, Shenjang Bank is on the verge of announcing 20% plus NPLs. </li>
</ul>



USD Bond Payments Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made another set of 11th hour interest payments of USD 148 mn to bondholders on Wednesday, November 10, 2021;

Trial Balloon Not a Panacea: Mainland Chinese authorities hinted a readiness to loosen their grip on the issuance of CNY-denominated bonds by real estate companies; and

Watch Your Bank Risk: Evergrande has already been in contact with lenders for loan extensions. Main bank, Shenjang Bank is on the verge of announcing 20% plus NPLs. 


China Evergrande Group – Making Those Payments

*Kaisa Defaults: On November 4, 2021, Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa], which provided a guarantee on a wealth management product (WMP), disclosed that it had missed a payment - citing that “it is facing unprecedented liquidity pressure due to a challenging property market and rating downgrades”.  While the 25th largest developer by home sales in mainland China may not appear to be significant, Kaisa does have the second largest level of short-term debt due (USD 3.2 bn) after China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] without any meaningful plan for repayment; and*We Await Evergrande’s Next Payments: We await official word on whether Evergrande’s Scenery Journey met its coupon payment of USD 82.5 mn due November 6, 2021, and we look toward the 30-day grace period expiry on a third set of bond interest payments of USD 148 mn due November 10, 2021.

*Kaisa Defaults: On November 4, 2021, Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa], which provided a guarantee on a wealth management product (WMP), disclosed that it had missed a payment - citing that “it is facing unprecedented liquidity pressure due to a challenging property market and rating downgrades”.  While the 25th largest developer by home sales in mainland China may not appear to be significant, Kaisa does have the second largest level of short-term debt due (USD 3.2 bn) after China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] without any meaningful plan for repayment; and*We Await Evergrande’s Next Payments: We await official word on whether Evergrande’s Scenery Journey met its coupon payment of USD 82.5 mn due November 6, 2021, and we look toward the 30-day grace period expiry on a third set of bond interest payments of USD 148 mn due November 10, 2021.   

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the crisis of confidence in the Chinese property sector. The current situation was precipitated by a series of events, beginning with the introduction of the Three Red Lines policy in 2020. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the crisis of confidence in the Chinese property sector. The current situation was precipitated by a series of events, beginning with the introduction of the Three Red Lines policy in 2020. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property - Crisis Of Confidence - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-173'>First Pacific Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-227'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-169'>Kaisa Group Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.First Pacific CoGuangzhou R&F PropertiesKaisa Group HoldingsVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Kaisa Group Holdings

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande Group – Making Those Payments

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande magically made another set of 11th hour interest payments of USD 148 mn to bondholders on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 -...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Kaisa Rolled

EVERGRANDE: Kaisa missed a bond payment, and has the second largest level of short-term debt due. We await official word Evergrande’s Scenery...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property - Crisis Of Confidence - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the crisis of confidence in the Chinese property sector. The current situation was precipitated by...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Kaisa Group Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)