Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Default: On December 6, 2021, several investors appear to have confirmed that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] does not have the financial wherewithal to cover grace period payments;</li>
<li>
Fire Brigade Called: Evergrande established a risk-management committee (RMC) to assist in "mitigating and eliminating the future risks", in addition to Guangdong Province disseminating a team to Evergrande; and</li>
<li>
Intensified Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.</li>
</ul>



Default: On December 6, 2021, several investors appear to have confirmed that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] does not have the financial wherewithal to cover grace period payments;

Fire Brigade Called: Evergrande established a risk-management committee (RMC) to assist in "mitigating and eliminating the future risks", in addition to Guangdong Province disseminating a team to Evergrande; and

Intensified Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.


<ul>
<li>
Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; </li>
<li>
Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and</li>
<li>
Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. </li>
</ul>



Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; 

Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and

Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. 


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/seazen' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='/entities/honghua-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Honghua Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Vedanta ResourcesSeazen (Formerly Future Land)Honghua GroupChina Jinmao HoldingsLifestyle International Holdingsand more...

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border restrictions on the industry, and our forecast for the coming years. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border restrictions on the industry, and our forecast for the coming years. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   </li>
<li>We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. </li>
<li>Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. </li>
</ul>


We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   
We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. 
Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. 


The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

China Evergrande Group – Fire Sale

EVERGRANDE: Several investors appear to have confirmed that Evergrande failed to cover grace period payments. Shenjing Bank has CNY 129.4 bn...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande – Pre-Announcement?

EVERGRANDE: In an exchange filing, Evergrande is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan. A 30-day grace...

Thomas J. Monaco

Weekly Wrap - 03 Dec 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border...

Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road...

Bondcritic

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