External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).</li><li>Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).</li><li>Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone topline was up 12.9% YoY at Rs11.6bn, in-line with our estimate of Rs11.4bn.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Store additions in 4QFY22: The company again created a new all-time record with the opening of 80 new Domino’s stores, taking the network strength to 1,567 stores as of 31st March’22.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>FY22 standalone performance: Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 32.5%, 44.1% and 89.6% YoY, respectively.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone topline was up 12.9% YoY at Rs11.6bn, in-line with our estimate of Rs11.4bn.Store additions in 4QFY22: The company again created a new all-time record with the opening of 80 new Domino’s stores, taking the network strength to 1,567 stores as of 31st March’22.FY22 standalone performance: Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 32.5%, 44.1% and 89.6% YoY, respectively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks - Operating Performance In-Line; Mr. Khetarpal Comes in as CEO & MD from Amazon

<ul><li>As of FY20, the Food Services industry in India was valued at Rs4.2tn and grew by 7- 8% over the prior 5 years.</li><li>FY21 was a forgettable year, as the sector was affected by restrictions on operating hours &amp; capacity, which shrunk the industry size by ~76%.</li><li>Around 26% of restaurants in India shut down permanently, with ~33% of the 7.4mn workforce losing their jobs...(continued).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

As of FY20, the Food Services industry in India was valued at Rs4.2tn and grew by 7- 8% over the prior 5 years.FY21 was a forgettable year, as the sector was affected by restrictions on operating hours &amp; capacity, which shrunk the industry size by ~76%.Around 26% of restaurants in India shut down permanently, with ~33% of the 7.4mn workforce losing their jobs...(continued).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Sector Update: Restructured Food Services Industry Looking at Good Potential Going Ahead

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)</li><li>Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urban</li><li>Volume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessed</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urbanVolume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

<ul><li>We have seen CEO changes for various other consumer companies in the past, and most changes have been value accretive.</li><li>However, we remain cautious until the new CEO showcases his execution capability.</li><li>His exit (along with past exits of many members of senior management) is certainly adding several risks.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We have seen CEO changes for various other consumer companies in the past, and most changes have been value accretive.However, we remain cautious until the new CEO showcases his execution capability.His exit (along with past exits of many members of senior management) is certainly adding several risks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (Update): CEO quits  adds risks on all fronts. Maintain REDUCE

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

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Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).

HDFC Securities

Jubilant FoodWorks - Operating Performance In-Line; Mr. Khetarpal Comes in as CEO & MD from Amazon

Jubilant Foodworks’ (JUBI) 4QFY22 operating performance was in-line with our estimate. Like-for-Like (LFL) growth stood at 5.8% vs our est. of 6%

Nirmal Bang

Consumer Sector Update: Restructured Food Services Industry Looking at Good Potential Going Ahead

Consumer Sector Update Expert Meeting Update Restructured Food Services industry looking at good potential going ahead We recently hosted...

Nirmal Bang

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant FoodWorks (Update): CEO quits adds risks on all fronts. Maintain REDUCE

We have seen CEO changes for various other consumer companies in the past, and most changes have been value accretive. However, we remain cautious...

HDFC Securities

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