Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism. The activism movement relates to the decision of selling its entire power arm, Jindal Power Limited to a promoter group entity, a decision that embarked a controversy. This is a second major shareholder activism, creating a roadblock for the promoters, after what happened with JSW Energy recently, which was covered by us in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jsw-energy-fresh-trouble" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42651" rel="noopener">JSW Energy: Fresh Trouble</a>. 
With the above two entities combined with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-failure-the-upsurge-of-shareholder-activism-in-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44110" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?</a>  , one thing is certain, that shareholder activism in India is gaining credence, and it is about time that these promoter-family-businesses take them seriously.

Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism. The activism movement relates to the decision of selling its entire power arm, Jindal Power Limited to a promoter group entity, a decision that embarked a controversy. This is a second major shareholder activism, creating a roadblock for the promoters, after what happened with JSW Energy recently, which was covered by us in JSW Energy: Fresh Trouble. 
With the above two entities combined with Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)'s Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?  , one thing is certain, that shareholder activism in India is gaining credence, and it is about time that these promoter-family-businesses take them seriously.

JSPL- Shareholder Activism Gains Credence

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

On 31 May I wrote about the proposal from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1" rel="noopener">Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN)</a> promoter group to take the Company private through a Delisting Offer, a measure that obtained shareholder approval, as expected, on 25 June.While the eventually unsuccessful delisting offer of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and the eventually successful delisting offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hexaware-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7882:1" rel="noopener">Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)</a> took the spotlight, Adani Power effectively languished for months. I had, interestingly enough, been talking about this to people who would listen. It has been something of a no-brainer to me because...<ol style="list-style-type: lower-alpha;">
<li>As it was trading in the INR 35-36 area in July and August, then again in September to early November, it was trading VERY cheap on an option basis. With such a very high debt/EBITDA ratio, buying the company at a premium to then-current EV/EBITDA multiple required a large jump in price. </li>
<li>There was no premium being applied despite improvements in the positioning of IPPs in India. </li>
</ol>When <a href="https://www.adanipower.com/newsroom/media-releases/Adani-Power-announces-Q2-FY21-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 Results</a> came out on 5 November (<a href="https://www1.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_06112020195030_Intimation06112020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 presentation 6 Nov</a>) much better than the market expected (revenues +29%yoy, consolidated EBITDA +126%yoy, PBT up 18-fold), the stock got a pop.  But it did not last long. The one-off nature of the regulatory (Appellate Tribunal Of Electricity (APTEL)) approvals of Adani Power Maharashtra Ltd’s claims for coal shortfall compensation and carrying costs meant the company's Q2 profits were less than exciting on their own, despite signs of stronger Average Plant Load Factor levels ahead. On a media call early Thursday 6 November, the MD and CEO of Adani Transmission and the MD of Thermal Power at Adani Power said that the delisting process "is in process", saying they have approval from six lenders, and other lenders would also like to approve. But the stock did not move much.<h3>Then Things Changed</h3>Things have been somewhat quiet since then, but this past week, things got exciting. The company won a short-term contract to supply 6,100MW of electricity to the Punjab Govt.<div class="content-highlight">And....   Adani Power shares rose 54.8% this past week (in four trading days), in fabulous volumes.</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/665/original/Screenshot%202020-12-06%20at%2012.33.14%20PM.png?1607229262" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176665"></figure></section><div class="content-highlight">
That leaves us with questions about the Delisting Offer Reverse Book Build to come.
And given the shareholder structure, the questions are understandable. 
</div>More discussion below.

On 31 May I wrote about the proposal from the Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN) promoter group to take the Company private through a Delisting Offer, a measure that obtained shareholder approval, as expected, on 25 June.While the eventually unsuccessful delisting offer of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and the eventually successful delisting offer for Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) took the spotlight, Adani Power effectively languished for months. I had, interestingly enough, been talking about this to people who would listen. It has been something of a no-brainer to me because...
As it was trading in the INR 35-36 area in July and August, then again in September to early November, it was trading VERY cheap on an option basis. With such a very high debt/EBITDA ratio, buying the company at a premium to then-current EV/EBITDA multiple required a large jump in price. 
There was no premium being applied despite improvements in the positioning of IPPs in India. 
When Q2 Results came out on 5 November (Q2 presentation 6 Nov) much better than the market expected (revenues +29%yoy, consolidated EBITDA +126%yoy, PBT up 18-fold), the stock got a pop.  But it did not last long. The one-off nature of the regulatory (Appellate Tribunal Of Electricity (APTEL)) approvals of Adani Power Maharashtra Ltd’s claims for coal shortfall compensation and carrying costs meant the company's Q2 profits were less than exciting on their own, despite signs of stronger Average Plant Load Factor levels ahead. On a media call early Thursday 6 November, the MD and CEO of Adani Transmission and the MD of Thermal Power at Adani Power said that the delisting process "is in process", saying they have approval from six lenders, and other lenders would also like to approve. But the stock did not move much.Then Things ChangedThings have been somewhat quiet since then, but this past week, things got exciting. The company won a short-term contract to supply 6,100MW of electricity to the Punjab Govt.And....   Adani Power shares rose 54.8% this past week (in four trading days), in fabulous volumes.
That leaves us with questions about the Delisting Offer Reverse Book Build to come.
And given the shareholder structure, the questions are understandable. 
More discussion below.

ADANI POWER On the Move - Fundamentals Better and Delisting Offer Imminent But... There Are RISKS...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

India

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited generates and distributes power, mines and processes lignite, manufactures fertilizers & chemicals and processes and sells clay of all kinds. The Company's other activities include the briquetting and carbonization of lignite and its main products include electric power, lignite, nekolin, pulverized nekolin, urea, coke fines and leco.

Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd. generates electricity.  The Company operates a private sector hydroelectric power plant.

RattanIndia Infrastructure Limited, through a subsidiary, develops electricity generating plants.  The Company is building a coal-fired plant in Nandgaonpeth in the Amravati District of Maharashtra State, and a coal-fired plant in Sinnar in the Nasik District of Maharashtra State.

Reliance Power Limited develops, constructs, and operates power projects both domestically and internationally.

RattanIndia Power Limited develops, constructs and operates power projects domestically and internationally. The Company is participating in various Coal based Thermal,Hydro and Renewable Energy projects as well as is actively pursuing various coal mining opportunities.

PTC India Ltd buys and sells electricity.

Tata Power Company Limited generates and supplies electricity in Mumbai and its suburbs. The Company also constructs and operates independent power plants as well as captive power plants for industrial concerns. Tata Power also provides various services related to electricity distribution, erects and commissions transmission lines, and is diversifying into the telecommunications market.

Adani Transmission Limited provides utility services. The Company offers electricity generation, transmission, and distribution services. Adani Transmission conducts its business globally.

GAIL India Limited processes and distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company is a Government of India undertaking.

Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co., Ltd. invests in electric power projects through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manufactures cable, railroad control systems and other automation equipment.

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

NRG Energy, Inc. owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power-generating facilities, primarily in the United States.  The Company's operations include energy production and cogeneration facilities, thermal energy production, and energy resource recovery facilities.

GD Power Development Co., Ltd. generates and distributes electric power and heat throughout China.  The Company also invests in new energy development and environmental protection projects.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. supplies electric power through operating thermal power generation.  The Company also involves in the research and development of electric power, power and energy-saving technology development, technical consulting, sales of energy-saving products, electrical engineering and asset management.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power A (600023 CH)

EDP Renovaveis SA designs, develops, manages and operates power plants. The Company generates electricity using renewable energy sources mostly wind energy.

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

SDIC Power Holdings Co Ltd . generates thermal electric and hydroelectric power. The electric power generated by the Company are supplied to Gansu area.

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

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JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN)

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Halfway through the review period, we take a look at stocks that could migrate across the large, mid and small cap segments. With over US$100bn of...

Brian Freitas

JSPL- Shareholder Activism Gains Credence

JSPL in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism with the decision to sell off its...

Nitin Mangal

Review for the Year 2020

We review our entire cloud of insights covered in 2020, and give a snapshot of how did they pay out in the market, including future prospects.

Nitin Mangal

ADANI POWER On the Move - Fundamentals Better and Delisting Offer Imminent But... There Are RISKS...

The ADANI POWER Delisting Offer process is set to end soon. The CFO suggested the RBB might be announced by year-end. The big price jump last week...

Travis Lundy

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

China accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within EM, while Brazil...

Vermilion Research

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