Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Expressway (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)</a> has seen marginally weaker traffic in 4Q22 relative to 3Q22 due to sporadic COVID outbreaks but the magnitude is manageable. </li>
<li>We welcome its indication that stable absolute DPS level will be maintained, with additional target to increase gradually. That means secured FY22 and FY23 yield of at least 8.3%.</li>
<li>Clean energy investment and exit of property business will improve earnings quality. Projected ROE of over 13% also provides good justification for upside to its 0.8x P/B. </li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) has seen marginally weaker traffic in 4Q22 relative to 3Q22 due to sporadic COVID outbreaks but the magnitude is manageable. 
We welcome its indication that stable absolute DPS level will be maintained, with additional target to increase gradually. That means secured FY22 and FY23 yield of at least 8.3%.
Clean energy investment and exit of property business will improve earnings quality. Projected ROE of over 13% also provides good justification for upside to its 0.8x P/B. 


Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): Positive Updates from Management

Shenzhen Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK)</a> guided that many drivers are presented for the rest of the year to support growth, after a 24% YoY decline in 1Q22 net profit. </li>
<li>Toll road business should benefit from organic growth and project completions, while clean energy and waste treatment businesses will experience astronomical growth from capacity acquisitions. </li>
<li>There exists room to leverage up for growth as liabilities-to-asset ratio is still 11pp below its tolerance level of 65%. Besides below-average PERs, FY22F yield of 10% is attractive too.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK) guided that many drivers are presented for the rest of the year to support growth, after a 24% YoY decline in 1Q22 net profit. 
Toll road business should benefit from organic growth and project completions, while clean energy and waste treatment businesses will experience astronomical growth from capacity acquisitions. 
There exists room to leverage up for growth as liabilities-to-asset ratio is still 11pp below its tolerance level of 65%. Besides below-average PERs, FY22F yield of 10% is attractive too.


Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK): Cautiously Optimistic

Zhejiang Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

After reporting an 8.65x surge in profit in 1H21, we think there are three drivers that should bring better outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> (ZJEC) over the next twelve months. These positive factors include further rebound in traffic and toll revenue, additional contribution from new projects and good upside from profit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities Co Ltd (601878 CH)</a>. YTD, share price of ZJEC increased by 10%, but we still see good upside potential given that it trades on only 0.9x P/B for FY21 and its ROE for 1H21 already reached 10.1% (before annualised). On earnings valuation, its 5.7x and 5.0x PER for FY21 and FY22, respectively, also appeared very attractive, in our view.

After reporting an 8.65x surge in profit in 1H21, we think there are three drivers that should bring better outlook for Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) (ZJEC) over the next twelve months. These positive factors include further rebound in traffic and toll revenue, additional contribution from new projects and good upside from profit of Zheshang Securities Co Ltd (601878 CH). YTD, share price of ZJEC increased by 10%, but we still see good upside potential given that it trades on only 0.9x P/B for FY21 and its ROE for 1H21 already reached 10.1% (before annualised). On earnings valuation, its 5.7x and 5.0x PER for FY21 and FY22, respectively, also appeared very attractive, in our view. 

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Drivers in Place for Robust Outlook

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 
<div class="content-highlight">
This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 
</div>
In this report, we identify that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>as winners while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>as losers.

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 

This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Genting Singapore (GENS SP)as losers. 

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

China

Jiangsu Expressway Company Ltd. constructs, operates, manages and maintains expressways in China.  The Company also provides passenger transportation and other ancillary services along including fueling stations, restaurants, car maintenance and repair and advertising.

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Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK): Positive Updates from Management

Jiangsu Expressway is on cause for continued recovery in the next 12 months with ROE expected to be over 13%. It will maintain stable absolute DPS,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK): Cautiously Optimistic

SZEX is expected to gain earnings momentum over the next few quarters as toll traffic recovers, clean energy and waste management capacity...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Drivers in Place for Robust Outlook

We believe sustained traffic and toll recovery, contribution from new project addition and positive outlook for Zheshang Securities will drive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)...

Henry Soediarko

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