Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 6 new adds to MidCap, and 16 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

<ul>
<li>There are 5 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 LargeCap to MidCap, 3 new additions to MidCap, 9 SmallCap to MidCap, 11 MidCap to SmallCap, 3 new additions to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.</li>
<li>Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 LargeCap to MidCap, 3 new additions to MidCap, 9 SmallCap to MidCap, 11 MidCap to SmallCap, 3 new additions to SmallCap.
The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.
Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.


KOSPI Size Indices - Changes in March & Implications

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

There are increasing indications that the big Chinese money is leaving Jeju island (0.6 million in population) in Korea. There has been a huge real estate speculation in the Jeju island, especially in the past five years, driven by an enormous rush of Chinese money. For example, Chinese people owned 1.6m sq meters of land in Jeju island at end of 2012, surging to 8.9m sq meters at end of 2015, an increase of 456% in three years. It is reported that some of the real estate agents in Jeju island…

There are increasing indications that the big Chinese money is leaving Jeju island (0.6 million in population) in Korea. There has been a huge real estate speculation in the Jeju island, especially in the past five years, driven by an enormous rush of Chinese money. For example, Chinese people owned 1.6m sq meters of land in Jeju island at end of 2012, surging to 8.9m sq meters at end of 2015, an increase of 456% in three years. It is reported that some of the real estate agents in Jeju island…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.<div class="content-highlight">We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. </div>An…

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. An…

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

South Korea

Jeju Bank is a regional commercial bank that provides banking, foreign exchange, trust account, and other related retail banking services.

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Jeju Bank (006220 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

We currently forecast 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices. There are stocks that are potential KOSPI200 adds in December and others that will...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Overlap With Other Index Flows

We currently forecast 52 changes for the KOSPI Size Indices. While there are few passive assets tracking these indices, they are used by active...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Changes in March & Implications

The changes to the KOSPI Size Indices were announced on Friday. Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have bigly outperformed and going by...

Brian Freitas

Chinese Money Is Leaving Jeju Island

There are increasing indications that the big Chinese money is leaving Jeju island (0.6 million in population) in Korea. There has been a huge real...

Douglas Kim

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in...

Daniel Tabbush

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