Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is expected to release fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results on 23rd March 2022.</li>
<li>We expect fourth quarter 2021 earnings to be soft driven by slowdown in online advertising and online games revenues.</li>
<li>In our 3Q2021 earnings note, we highlighted that weakness in Tencent’s earnings have begun to show up and we expect further declines in 4Q2021E.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) is expected to release fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results on 23rd March 2022.
We expect fourth quarter 2021 earnings to be soft driven by slowdown in online advertising and online games revenues.
In our 3Q2021 earnings note, we highlighted that weakness in Tencent’s earnings have begun to show up and we expect further declines in 4Q2021E.


Tencent: 4Q2021 Earnings to Soften with Decelerating Games Growth and Weak Ad Revenue

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Various figures for the Chinese New Year holidays suggested that the domestic tourism market is lukewarm in 2022. However, there are evidences that high-end consumption is better than low-end.</li>
<li>Weak cross-province tourism and low-end spending are likely negative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maoyan-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27451:1" rel="noopener">Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>Good duty-free sales and high-end spending are beneficial to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Various figures for the Chinese New Year holidays suggested that the domestic tourism market is lukewarm in 2022. However, there are evidences that high-end consumption is better than low-end.
Weak cross-province tourism and low-end spending are likely negative to China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK), Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) and IMAX China Holding (1970 HK).  
Good duty-free sales and high-end spending are beneficial to CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), Fosun International (656 HK) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). 


2022 Chinese New Year Holidays - Some Winners and Losers

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>With churn rates as high as 50% and wholesale customers declining by 27.7% in 9M21, we are not particularly interested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> over long term.</li>
<li>The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant premium to peers.</li>
<li>Given that the market takes time to pick up similar mispricing situations, we think its advisable to wait and see where Huitongda opens, before arranging a short position.</li>
</ul>


With churn rates as high as 50% and wholesale customers declining by 27.7% in 9M21, we are not particularly interested in Huitongda (9878 HK) over long term.
The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant premium to peers.
Given that the market takes time to pick up similar mispricing situations, we think its advisable to wait and see where Huitongda opens, before arranging a short position.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Logistics Property Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a></strong>'s <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0203/2022020300037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Composite Document</a> has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.</li>
<li>The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.</li>
<li>Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)'s Composite Document has now been despatched. The Offer is open for acceptance with a first close on the 25 February.
The Offer from JD.com is conditional on 50% acceptances, with 66.4% in the bag.
Done deal and trading through terms. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. 


CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving businesses in the lower-tier retail markets of China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Huitongda (9878 HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving businesses in the lower-tier retail markets of China.
In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Huitongda (汇通达) IPO - Not the Right Price

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

Tencent: 4Q2021 Earnings to Soften with Decelerating Games Growth and Weak Ad Revenue

We expect Tencent’s 4Q2021E results to show up further weaknesses in the company’s earnings driven by decelerating growth in online games and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2022 Chinese New Year Holidays - Some Winners and Losers

2022 Chinese New Year figures showed marginal decline domestic tourists, and pointed to better high-end consumption performance than low-end. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Huitongda IPO - Valuation

The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

CLPH (1589 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

This transaction is done. Trading 1% through terms, as it has done so since late last month. Should the share price dip below the MGO price, get...

David Blennerhassett

Huitongda (汇通达) IPO - Not the Right Price

Huitongda (9878 HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO. Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving...

Clarence Chu

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